for Thursday, 09 September 2010 [7:30 AM PhT]
<<<Typhoon2000.com Mobile >>>
Get the latest 6-hrly SMS Storm Alerts on TS 11W!
For more details: Text T2K TYPHOON to
2800 (Globe/TM) | 216 (Smart/TNT) | 2288 (Sun)
*only P2.50 (Smart/Globe) / P2.00 (Sun) per msg received.
powered by: Synermaxx
Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wed September 08 2010):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email & SMS advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on the newly-formed TS 11W (UNNAMED).
11W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 40 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 75 kph
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
TROPICAL STORM 11W [UNNAMED]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 003
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Thu 09 September 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #04/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
Tropical Storm 11W (UNNAMED) has left the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) but its eastern rainbands are still affecting the Northwestern parts of Luzon including Batanes, Babuyan & Calayan Islands...likely to make landfall over Southeastern China tomorrow.
Residents and visitors along Southeastern China should closely monitor the progress of 11W.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 2 days)*
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Thu Sep 09 2010
Location of Center: 21.0º N Lat 118.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 230 km (125 nm) SW of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Distance 2: 300 km (162 nm) WNW of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 3: 320 km (172 nm) WNW of Basco, Batanes
Distance 4: 350 km (190 nm) SE of Shantou, China
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 05 kph (03 kts)
Towards: Southeastern China
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 250 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 450 km (240 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 13 ft (3.9 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1 feet [0.3 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Thu Sep 09
11W having a hard time consolidating over the northern part of the South China Sea, but still maintaining its Tropical Storm intensity. The storm is expected to turn WNW to NW-ward throughout the forecast period. It will slightly intensify while heading towards the Guangdong-Fujian Provinces of China today [2PM SEP 09: 21.6N 117.9E @ 75kph]. 11W will reach its peak intensity tomorrow morning before making landfall over SE China [2AM SEP 10: 22.5N 117.1E @ 85kph]. The touchdown area of 11W is somewhere just to the south of Shantou City before noontime tomorrow, and will start to weaken as it traverses the rugged terrain of Easternmost Guangdong and Southern Fujian by tomorrow afternoon [2PM SEP 10: 23.5N 116.3E @ 65kph]. On Saturday early morning, 11W will quickly dissipate over the mountains of Jiangxi Province [2AM SEP 11: 24.8N 115.6E @ 35kph]
Current Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 65 km/hr (35 kts) with higher gusts.
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed can be expected from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS
11W's circulation has become broader while consolidating over the South China Sea - with its rainbands bringing scattered to widespread rains and thunderstorms across Taiwan, Guangdong Province (China) and the northwestern portions of Luzon including the smaller islands of Batanes, Calayan and Babuyan. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the its rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 250 mm (heavy) near the center of 11W. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.
CURRENT I.T.C.Z. INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Sunny to mostly cloudy skies with isolated or scattered rains and thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: REST OF LUZON, METRO MANILA, BICOL REGION, PALAWAN, VISAYAS & MINDANAO. Light SW, South or SE winds (not in excess of 30 kph) can be expected along these areas.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TS 11W (UNNAMED)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1010.gif
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 48 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) IMAGERY REVEALS A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION
SHEARING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT POSITION AND
PAST SIX HOUR MOTION ARE BASED ON ANIMATED IR IMAGERY WITH POOR
CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW AND KNES OF 35 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM, ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING WESTWARD INTO EASTERN CHINA AND
CONTINUING TO IMPINGE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TS 11W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WESTERN EXTENSION OF A LOW TO MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR) STATIONED SOUTH OF MAINLAND
JAPAN. TS 11W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AND SLOWLY TURN
POLEWARD AS THE RIDGE IS WEAKENED BY AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL BY TAU 36 AND
DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS WHICH
RAPIDLY WEAKENS THE STR AND DRIVES THE SYSTEM POLEWARD FASTER AND
SOONER. GFDN, WBAR, NGPS, ECMWF, AND JGSM MODEL TRACKERS HAVE ALL
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS 12Z TRACKERS, INDICATING
THE STEERING RIDGE MAY WEAKEN SOONER THEN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THIS
FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND REMAINS WEST
OF CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED GFS POLEWARD BIAS AND
UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FROM HONG KONG, AND SHANTOU, CHINA INDICATING
EASTERLY FLOW...(more)
RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS 11W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
Copyright © 2010 Typhoon2000.com All Rights Reserved
No comments:
Post a Comment