Saturday, September 18, 2010

Typhoon FANAPI [INDAY] - Update #12

 


for Saturday, 18 September 2010 [6:26 PM PhT]


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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Fri September 17 2010):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email & SMS advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TY FANAPI (INDAY).


FANAPI (INDAY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 195 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 185 kph
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 160 km/hr

TYPHOON FANAPI [INDAY/12W/1011]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 012

6:20 PM PhT (10:20 GMT) Sat 18 September 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #015/RadarFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)

Taiwan's DotStar Aircraft Reconnaissance finds FANAPI (INDAY) much stronger than previously analyzed...becomes a major, Category 3 Typhoon...will pass very close to Ishigaki tonight...Landfall expected over Northeastern Taiwan tomorrow morning.

Residents and visitors along Yaeyema-Miyako Islands and particularly Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of FANAPI.

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:20 PM PhT Sat Sep 18 2010
Location of Eye: 23.9º N Lat 124.5º E Lon {RADAR FIX}
Distance 1: 75 km (40 nm) SSE of Ishigaki Island
Distance 2: 320 km (173 nm) ESE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 3: 455 km (245 nm) SW of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 4: 455 km (245 nm) NNE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 195 kph (105 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 240 kph (130 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 15 kph (08 kts)
Towards: Yaeyama-Taiwan Area
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 130 mm (Moderate)
Minimum Central Pressure: 944 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 3
Size (in Diameter): 665 km (360 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 28 ft (8.5 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 9-12 ft [2.7-3.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Sat Sep 18

ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 2 days)*

FANAPI is expected to resume its westward track for the next 48 hours. It will still continue to intensify through the evening while passing along the Yaeyama Island Chain. The core (eye & eyewall) will pass very close to Ishigaki Island tonight [2AM SEP 19: 24.0N 123.2E @ 205kph], and will make landfall along the coast of Northeastern Taiwan or in the vicinity of Hualien City before noon tomorrow. By tomorrow afternoon, FANAPI will weaken slightly as it traverses the mountains of Central Taiwan [2PM SEP 19: 24.0N 121.0E @ 165kph] and will enter Taiwan Strait during the early morning hours of Monday [2PM SEP 20: 23.8N 118.8E @ 140kph]. FANAPI will make its final landfall on Monday morning - along the coast of Southeastern China, or in between Shantou and Xiamen Cities...and will quickly weaken into a tropical storm as it moves inland across the mountains of Northeastern Guangdong on Monday afternoon [2PM SEP 20: 24.0N 116.1E @ 95kph].

Current Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 195 km/hr (105 kts) with higher gusts. FANAPI is now a Category 3 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale...and should still intensify before it makes landfall. Typhoon Force Winds (>118 km/hr) extend outward up to 65 kilometers (35 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 220 kilometers (120 nm).

EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 4 days)*

TUESDAY AFTERNOON:  Dissipating quickly overland, northwest of Hong Kong...just a depression [2PM SEP 21: 24.6N 112.6E @ 55kph].
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON:  Dissipated over South-Central China [2PM SEP 22: 25.1N 109.6E @ 35kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS

FANAPI displays an irregular 35-km Eye, surrounded by a ring of thick-eyewall convection. Its outer bands are now spreading over the eastern coastlines of Taiwan...while the inner bands are now moving over Miyako and Yaeyama Islands. A 4PM Japan Time Observation at Ishigaki Weather Station has reported 84-kph winds from the North gusting to 112 kph and a pressure of 987 mb. Tropical Storm Conditions are now occurring across Miyako and Yaeyama Islands, becoming Typhoon Conditions later tonight. Tropical Storm Conditions will start commencing across Eastern Taiwan early tomorrow morning, spreading over the rest of Taiwan before noon tomorrow. The eastern coast of Taiwan especially along the Hualien City Area will begin to experience Typhoon Conditions tomorrow morning (click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis). 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 130 mm (moderate) near the center of FANAPI (click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount). Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 9 to 12 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Yaeyama and Miyako Islands tonight...and over the shorelines of Taiwan, particularly the east coast, tomorrow. Extensive damage is likely on this type of storm surge.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

Tropical Disturbance 90W (LPA/1008 MB) remains disorganized while to the east of Northern Marianas. Located near lat 16.2N lon 154.0E...or about 905 km ENE of Saipan...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph near the center...moving WNW slowly. The 48-hour Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential remains at 40% (Medium Chance).

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: WEAK >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN BICOL, VISAYAS AND PALAWAN. Light to moderate SW winds (not in excess of 25 kph) can be expected over these areas today.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!



External Links for TY FANAPI (INDAY)


View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis

JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1210.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 96 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
       


JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) SAT 18 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 23.7N 125.3E.
*TYPHOON (TY) 12W (FANAPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A RADAR LOOP FROM ISHIGAKIJIMA, JAPAN DEPICT A 10 NM EYE
WITH DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION AND A CONCENTRIC EYE WALL. THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON AN DEFINED EYE IN
VISIBLE IMAGERY AND ON THE JAPAN RADAR LOOP. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM RJTD, PGTW, AND KNES OF 90 TO 102
KNOTS AS WELL AS AN 180249Z PGUA VORTEX MESSAGE INDICATING SURFACE
WIND SPEED ESTIMATES OF 105 KNOTS. WIND RADII ARE BASED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE ON DOTSTAR DROPSONDE DATA AND 18/07Z OBSERVATIONS FROM
ISHIGAKIJIMA (75 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TY 12W) INDICATING 44 KNOT
WINDS FROM THE NORTH GUSTING TO 61 KNOTS AND A PRESSURE OF 987 MB.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW ENHANCED EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW, HOWEVER POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS WEAKENED SOMEWHAT AS THE
OUTFLOW ENHANCING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS ALSO REVEALS INCREASED NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS) ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANTICYCLONE NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM. TY 12W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
NORTHEASTERN CHINA THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL OVER CENTRAL
TAIWAN. AFTER TAU 36 THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AGAIN
OVER EASTERN CHINA AND DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK
INLAND. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY PACKED THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD; THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO MODEL
CONSENSUS.
..(more)

>> FANAPI, meaning: Small atoll islands; sandy islandsName contributed by: Micronesia.
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RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART
:


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RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART
:


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RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE
:


> Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


> Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
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LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP)
 



> Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
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NOTE:
 
  * - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

   
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
   
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY FANAPI (INDAY)...go visit our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

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