for Monday, 06 September 2010 [12:59 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Fri September 03 2010):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email & SMS advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TS MALOU (HENRY).
MALOU (HENRY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 95 kph
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
TROPICAL STORM MALOU [HENRY/10W/1009]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 013
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Mon 06 September 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #18/SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
MALOU (HENRY) slows down as it approaches Cheju Island.
Residents and visitors along the Korean Peninsula should closely monitor the progress of MALOU.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 48 hours)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 days)*
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Mon Sep 06 2010
Location of Center: 32.4º N Lat 126.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 130 km (70 nm) SSW of Cheju Island
Distance 2: 340 km (185 nm) WSW of Sasebo, Japan
Distance 3: 410 km (220 nm) SW of Busan, S.Korea
Distance 4: 475 km (255 nm) ENE of Shanghai, China
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph (40 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 11 kph (06 kts)
Towards: Korean Peninsula
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 190 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 720 km (390 nm) / Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 18 ft (5.4 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1 feet [0.3 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PhT Mon Sep 06
TS MALOU will continue to move North to NNE-ward within the next 24 hours...and will pass over Cheju Island later this afternoon. The center will make landfall over the Southern part of South Korea by midnight or early tomorrow morning [8PM SEP 06: 34.0N 126.8E @ 75kph]. While overland, MALOU will start to weaken as it transitions into an Extratropical Cyclone...passing over Taegu City tomorrow morning or before noontime [8AM SEP 07: 35.6N 128.2E @ 65kph]. By tomorrow evening through Wednesday morning, the system will return back to sea or off the Sea of Japan as an Extratropical [8PM SEP 07: 36.7N 130.7E @ 55kph...8AM SEP 08: 37.3N 134.4E @ 45kph].
Current Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 75 km/hr (40 kts) with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-95 km/hr) extend outward up to 65 kilometers (35 nautical miles) from the center, especially along the NE and SE quadrants.
THURSDAY MORNING: Over the NW Pacific Ocean...after crossing North-Central Honshu [8AM SEP 09: 37.3N 143.5E @ 45kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed can be expected from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS
MALOU's strong circulation has remain slighty sheared, with most of its strong winds and rain-cloud convection to the East of the center...rain bands remain spreading across Cheju Island...and are now extending into South Korea. Tropical Storm Conditions expected to reach Cheju Island this afternoon...and over the SW Coast of South Korea by tonight. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 50 mm (light rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 190 mm (Heavy) near the center of MALOU. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TS MALOU (HENRY)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1010.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 72 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (MALOU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 55 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHEJU ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC WITH
DEEP CONVECTION BEING SHEARED NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. THERE
IS POOR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON A 052303Z 37H
SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS WHICH INDICATES MULTIPLE LOW LEVEL VORTICES MAY
STILL EXIST WITHIN THE BROAD CIRCULATION PATTERN. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS
FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJD, AS WELL AS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ON CHEJU
ISLAND INDICATING INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS (23 KNOTS AT 00Z AND 27
KNOTS AT 01Z). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM HAS IMPROVED
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH,
HOWEVER, INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES IS IMPINGING
OUTFLOW ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM AND CAUSING A MAJORITY
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION TO BE SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST...(more)
>> MALOU, meaning: Agate. Name contributed by: Macao, China.
RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS MALOU (HENRY)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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