for Thursday, 02 September 2010 [6:20 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thu September 02 2010):
Now issuing 6-hrly web, email & SMS advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on the newly-formed TD 10W.
10W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 10W [UNNAMED]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 002
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Thu 02 September 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #03/SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
Tropical Depression 10W (UNNAMED) moving rapidly towards the northwest...will enter the NE border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) late tonight or tomorrow.
Residents and visitors along Okinawa, Ryukyus, Taiwan, Southern Japan & Korea should closely monitor the progress of 10W.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 48 hours)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Thu Sep 02 2010
Location of Center: 20.3º N Lat 135.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 95 km (50 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 2: 1,060 km (572 nm) SE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 3: 1,450 km (783 nm) East of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Present Movement: NW @ 37 kph (20 kts)
Towards: Okinawa-Ryukyus Area
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 180 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Size (in Diameter): 185 km (100 nm) / Small
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 ft (3.0 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Thu Sep 02
TD 10W continues to consolidate while moving quickly towards the NW...will enter PAR late tonight or early tomorrow morning [2AM SEP 03: 21.4N 134.3E @ 65kph]. This new system will continue moving generally NW-ward for the next 48 hours...exiting PAR by early Saturday morning [2AM SEP 05: 24.9N 129.6E @ 95kph]. On this new forecast suite, 10W will be passing over Okinawa Island Saturday afternoon [2PM SEP 05: 26.5N 127.9E @ 110kph], with more strengthening expected.
Current Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 55 km/hr (30 kts) with higher gusts. The forecast path of this cyclone is very similar to Typhoon KOMPASU (GLENDA) which is now over the Sea of Japan and becoming Extratropical.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Attaining typhoon status (Category 1) while moving into the East China Sea [2PM SEP 05: 28.4N 126.3E @ 140kph].
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Turning northward as it approaches to the west of Cheju Island [2PM SEP 06: 30.9N 125.2E @ 150kph]
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Still tracking northward...approaching the west coast of South Korea [2PM SEP 07: 34.3N 125.2E @ 160kph]
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed can be expected from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS
10W's circulation is still on its early stages of development...currently located within an active monsoon trough across the Philippines and into the Marianas. No hazards and effects from this depression are taking place as of this time. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 40 mm (light rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 180 mm (Moderate) near the center of 10W. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.
CURRENT SOUTHWEST MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with passing on-&-off heavy rains and thunderstorms can be expected along these following affected areas: WHOLE PHILIPPINES...becoming more intense along BICOL REGION, MINDORO, VISAYAS, PALAWAN, PARTS OF MINDANAO, WESTERN & SOUTHERN LUZON including METRO MANILA. Light to moderate SW winds (not in excess of 35 kph) can be expected today.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TD 10W (UNNAMED)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1010.gif
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 10W (TEN). LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 635 NM
SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS MAINTAINED ITS CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AS IT CONTINUES TO
CONSOLIDATE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 020347Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS FROM PGTW
AND KNES. TD 10W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED SOUTH OF JAPAN. IT IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS OUTFLOW IMPROVES, AIDED BY A TUTT
CELL TO THE WEST. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN POLEWARD IN
RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE ARE IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH A TRACK THAT
BRINGS THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE WESTERN YELLOW SEA. THIS MAY BE CAUSED
BY POOR INITIALIZATION AS MOST OF THE MODELS DEPICT A VERY WEAK
VORTEX AT TAU 00. THIS TRACK FORECAST DEVIATES FROM THE PACK AFTER
TAU 48 IN FAVOR OF A MORE INTENSE SYSTEM THAT WILL RECURVE TOWARD THE
EASTERN YELLOW SEA...(more)
RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TD 10W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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