for Thursday, 16 September 2010 [5:57 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thu September 16 2010):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email & SMS advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TS FANAPI (INDAY).
FANAPI (INDAY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 105 kph
TROPICAL STORM FANAPI [INDAY/12W/1011]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 006
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Thu 16 September 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #007/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
FANAPI (INDAY) drifting eastward slowly with no change in strength.
Residents and visitors along Batanes, Okinawa-Ryukyus-Yaeyema Islands and Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of FANAPI.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Thu Sep 16 2010
Location of Center: 21.6º N Lat 128.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 530 km (287 nm) SE of Ishigaki Island
Distance 2: 545 km (295 nm) South of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 3: 675 km (367 nm) ENE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 4: 780 km (422 nm) SE of Taipei, Taiwan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 100 kph (55 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 130 kph (70 kts)
Present Movement: East @ 07 kph (04 kts)
Towards: Ishigaki-Taiwan Area
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 200 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 465 km (250 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 16 ft (4.8 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Thu Sep 16
FANAPI is expected to become a typhoon later tonight or early tomorrow, and slowly track northwestward within the next 24 hours [2PM SEP 17: 22.7N 128.0E @ 140kph]. It will then take a more westerly turn with increasing intensity & forward speed - in the direction of Yaeyama Island Chain and Taiwan on Saturday [2PM SEP 18: 23.6N 125.5E @ 160kph].
Current Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 100 km/hr (55 kts) with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 110 kilometers (60 nautical miles) from the center.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Off the eastern coast of Taiwan...will pass very near Hualien City and cross Central Taiwan Sunday evening [2PM SEP 19: 24.0N 122.2E @ 160kph].
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Making landfall off the coast of Fujian Province in Southeastern China...very near the City of Xiamen...downgraded to a Tropical Storm [2PM SEP 20: 24.6N 118.3E @ 110kph].
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Dissipating overland near Fujian-Guangdong border...just barely a Tropical Depression [2PM SEP 21: 26.0N 115.0E @ 45kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS
FANAPI's circulation continues to improve in all quadrants except the northwestern side due to some intrusion of dry air from the developing high pressure ridge. The northern outer bands are just to the southeast of Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands, but should begin spreading tonight or tomorrow. As of the moment, this system is not yet affecting any islands or coastal areas. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 200 mm (Heavy) near the center of FANAPI. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.
CURRENT I.T.C.Z. INTENSITY: WEAK >> Sunny to cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms especially in the afternoon or evening can be expected along the following affected areas: PALAWAN, AND VISAYAS. Light SE, North to variable winds (not in excess of 25 kph) can be expected over these areas today.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TS FANAPI (INDAY)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1210.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (FANAPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM SOUTH
OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
TS 12W HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE WITH A WEAK MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE EVIDENT IN A 160442Z AMSU 89 GHZ IMAGE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND UPPER-LEVEL FEATURE TRACK WINDS DEPICT CONVERGENCE OVER
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH,
THEREFORE, THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. OVERALL, OUTFLOW IS GOOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
POSITION BASED ON THE AMSU IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING EASTWARD TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO WEAK
INTERACTION WITH THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH PROPAGATING EASTWARD ACROSS
WESTERN JAPAN BUT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND TURN WESTWARD AS A DEEP
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE EAST CHINA SEA. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES
IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE WESTWARD TURN. THE 16/00Z 500 MB
ANALYSIS (AS WELL AS SATELLITE IMAGERY) SHOWS EVIDENCE THAT THE
RIDGE IS BUILDING RAPIDLY INTO THE EAST CHINA SEA. THEREFORE, MODEL
GUIDANCE APPEARS REASONABLE ON INITIATING A TURN IN THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WESTWARD ACROSS TAIWAN,
WEAKEN AND RE-EMERGE IN THE TAIWAN STRAIT, AND THEN MAKE LANDFALL
OVER MAINLAND CHINA NEAR TAU 96...(more)
>> FANAPI, meaning: Small atoll islands; sandy islands. Name contributed by: Micronesia.
RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS FANAPI (INDAY)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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