for Thursday, 23 September 2010 [6:54 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday Sep 23 2010):
PAGASA already updated their local name roster for this year, 2010...MILENYO was replaced by MARIO...while REMING was replaced by RUBY. Meanwhile, T2K continues to issue 6-hrly web & email advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TS MALAKAS (13W).
MALAKAS (13W/1012) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 120 kph
TROPICAL STORM MALAKAS [13W/1012]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 010
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Thu 23 September 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #013/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
MALAKAS (13W) has weakened into a Tropical Storm as it accelerates NNW...may regain typhoon classification tonight.
Residents and visitors along Iwo To and Chichijima should closely monitor the progress of MALAKAS.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 4 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS CURRENT MONSOON TROUGH (ITCZ) INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers, rains & thunderstorms can be expected along these following affected areas: CENTRAL & SOUTHERN LUZON, METRO MANILA, BICOL REGION, & NORTHERN VISAYAS. Light to moderate NE, East, or Variable winds (not in excess of 25 kph) can be expected today.
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Thu Sep 23 2010
Location of Center: 21.6º N Lat 140.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 360 km (195 nm) SSW of Iwo To
Distance 2: 615 km (332 nm) SSW of Chichijima
Distance 3: 1,410 km (762 nm) ESE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 4: 1,955 km (1,055 nm) ENE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 110 kph (60 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 140 kph (75 kts)
Present Movement: NNW @ 20 kph (11 kts)
Towards: Iwo To-Chichijima Area
24-hr Rain Amounts (near center): 310 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 978 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 835 km (450 nm) / Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 23 ft (7.0 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Thu Sep 23
MALAKAS' circulation continues to expand...becoming a large tropical cyclone over the Western Pacific. The wrapping up of its central convective clouds near the developing eye has become obscured and temporarily loose. However, within the next 24 hours, MALAKAS will re-intensify back to typhoon strength as it begins recurving towards the NNE to NE. The core of this system will pass over Iwo To and very close to Chichijima tomorrow (Friday) [2AM SEP 24: 22.6N 140.9E @ 130kph...2PM SEP 24: 26.1N 141.5E @ 150kph]. MALAKAS will become a Category 2 Typhoon on Saturday while moving NE-ward away from Chichijima [2AM SEP 25: 30.5N 143.1E @ 165kph...2PM SEP 25: 35.7N 146.8E @ 160kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 110 km/hr (60 knots) with higher gusts...re-strengthening is likely tonight as MALAKAS turns northward. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-140 km/hr) extend outward up to 165 kilometers (90 nautical miles) from the center.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Becomes Extratropical as it races faster towards the NE across the NW Pacific...passing due south of Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia [2PM SEP 26: 45.3N 157.5E @ 130kph].
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Passing to the SSE of the Pacific Russian Island of Nikol Skoye...losing strength [2PM SEP 27: 51.3N 169.0E @ 95kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
MALAKAS' northern outer rain bands is expected to reach Iwo To and Chichijima Islands tonight. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds are forecast to reach Iwo To early tomorrow morning (Friday)...becoming Typhoon Conditions w/ Typhoon Force Winds just before noon. Chichijima, on the other hand, will also experience Tropical Storm Conditions around noon...becoming Typhoon Conditions by mid-afternoon (Friday) (click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis). 24-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 200 mm (light to heavy rain) can be expected along its outer and inner bands...with isolated amounts of up to 310 mm (heavy) near the center of MALAKAS, especially along the eastern side (Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TS MALAKAS (13W)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1310.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 96 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (MALAKAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
SOUTH OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS WEAKENING CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER A TIGHTLY WRAPPED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). MULTIPLE RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGES REVEAL THE MAJORITY OF THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION IS ALONG
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT POSITION BASED ON MSI AND A 230329Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM 45 TO 65 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES INCREASED SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM DUE TO CONVERGENT FLOW BETWEEN AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH AND ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM. TS 13W IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING POLEWARD DUE TO A WEAKENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING TO THE NORTH AND INTENSIFY AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS ENHANCED
BY THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. NEAR TAU 36, THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AND DEVELOP INTO AN
INTENSE BAROCLINIC LOW BY TAU 72, AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
AND A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROVIDE FOR A STRONG BAROCLINIC DEVELOPMENT
MECHANISM. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT;
THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS...(more)
>> MALAKAS, meaning: Strong; powerful. Name contributed by: Philippines.
RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS MALAKAS (13W)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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