for Wednesday, 22 September 2010 [7:30 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday Sep 20 2010):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web & email advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TS MALAKAS (13W).
MALAKAS (13W/1012) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 75 kph
TROPICAL STORM MALAKAS [13W/1012]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 005
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Wed 22 September 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #007/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
Tropical Storm MALAKAS (13W) slowly moving away from Northern Marianas...intensified slightly.
Residents and visitors along Iwo To and Chichijima should closely monitor the progress of MALAKAS.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 4 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS CURRENT MONSOON TROUGH (ITCZ) INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers, rains & heavy thunderstorms with squalls can be expected along these following affected areas: SOUTHERN LUZON, BICOL REGION, VISAYAS AND MINDANAO. Light to moderate SE, East, or NE winds (not in excess of 25 kph) can be expected today.
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Wed Sep 22 2010
Location of Center: 19.4º N Lat 142.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 555 km (300 nm) NW of Saipan, CNMI
Distance 2: 620 km (335 nm) SSE of Iwo To
Distance 3: 820 km (443 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 4: 2,175 km (1,175 nm) ESE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph (40 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 11 kph (06 kts)
Towards: Iwo To-Chichijima Area
24-hr Rain Amounts (near center): 510 mm (Very Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 405 km (220 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 15 ft (4.5 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-2 ft [0.3-0.6 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Wed Sep 22
MALAKAS is expected to continue moving WNW within the next 24 hours, turning more northward and becoming a typhoon on Thursday afternoon [2AM SEP 23: 21.4N 140.7E @ 100kph...2PM SEP 23: 23.1N 140.3E @ 120kph]. MALAKAS will continue to slowly intensify and will pass very close to Iwo To by early Friday morning [2AM SEP 24: 24.6N 140.3E @ 140kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 75 km/hr (40 kts) with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-95 km/hr) extend outward up to 100 kilometers (55 nautical miles) from the center.
SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Becoming Extratropical as it accelerates NE-ward...attains peak intensity [2AM SEP 25: 31.1N 143.4E @ 160kph].
SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Downgraded to a storm...attains Extratropical status [2AM SEP 26: 40.4N 151.6E @ 100kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
MALAKAS continues to slowly organize, with most of its rain-cloud convection located south of the center. Improving weather conditions can be expected across the Northern Marianas today (click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis). 24-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 200 mm (light to heavy rain) can be expected along the its rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 510 mm (very heavy) near the center of MALAKAS, especially along the southern inner bands. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TS MALAKAS (13W)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1310.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 96 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*TROPICAL STORM 13W (MALAKAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 211629Z AMSR-E IMAGE INDICATE A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH TIGHTLY-WRAPPED SHALLOW CONVECTIVE
BANDING. IMAGERY ALSO CONTINUES TO SHOW THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION
IS DISPLACED EQUATORWARD FROM THE STORM'S CENTER. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45
KNOTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD. THE SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING SLOWLY DUE TO
NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE
NORTH QUADRANT. DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT AND SUPPORT THE
CURRENT RECURVE TRACK. TS 13W IS FORECAST TO TRACK UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE AND WILL RECURVE
AND ACCELERATE UNDER MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW NEAR TAU 72. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REACH PEAK INTENSITY BETWEEN TAU 60 AND 72
DUE TO ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW...(more)
>> MALAKAS, meaning: Strong; powerful. Name contributed by: Philippines.
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS MALAKAS (13W)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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