for Wednesday, 08 September 2010 [7:54 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wed September 08 2010):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email & SMS advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on the newly-formed TS 11W (UNNAMED).
11W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 40 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 75 kph
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
TROPICAL STORM 11W [UNNAMED]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 002
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Wed 08 September 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #02/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
11W (UNNAMED) now a Tropical Storm as it turns Westward in the direction of Southeastern China. Rainbands still affecting Northern Luzon including the smaller islands of Batanes, Calayan and Babuyan.
Residents and visitors along Southeastern China should closely monitor the progress of 11W.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 2 days)*
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Wed Sep 08 2010
Location of Center: 21.2º N Lat 119.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 195 km (105 nm) SSW of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Distance 2: 275 km (150 nm) WNW of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 3: 300 km (162 nm) WNW of Basco, Batanes
Distance 4: 355 km (192 nm) SE of Shantou, China
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 15 kph (08 kts)
Towards: Guangdong-Fujian Area
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 230 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 350 km (190 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 ft (3.0 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1 feet [0.3 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Wed Sep 08
TS 11W continues to consolidate over the South China Sea. The storm is expected to turn WNW to NW-ward throughout the forecast period. It will move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tonight and will continue to intensify while heading towards the Guangdong-Fujian Provinces of China [2AM SEP 09: 21.9N 118.4E @ 75kph]. 11W will reach its peak intensity by tomorrow afternoon prior in making landfall over SE China [2PM SEP 09: 22.8N 117.3E @ 85kph]. The touchdown area of 11W is somewhere just to the east of Shantou City tomorrow evening and will start to weaken as it traverses the rugged terrain of Southern Fujian or Eastern Guangdong by early Friday morning [2AM SEP 10: 24.1N 116.6E @ 65kph]. On Friday afternoon, 11W will quickly dissipate over the mountains of Jiangxi Province [2PM SEP 10: 25.5N 115.9E @ 35kph]
Current Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 65 km/hr (35 kts) with higher gusts.
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed can be expected from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS
11W's circulation continues to consolidate and improve with its southern bands bringing scattered to widespread rains and thunderstorm across Northern Luzon including the smaller islands of Batanes, Calayan and Babuyan. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the its rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 230 mm (heavy) near the center of 11W. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.
CURRENT I.T.C.Z. INTENSITY: WEAK >> Sunny to mostly cloudy skies with isolated or scattered rains and thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: REST OF LUZON, METRO MANILA, BICOL REGION, PALAWAN, VISAYAS & MINDANAO. Light SW, South or SE winds (not in excess of 30 kph) can be expected along these areas.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TS 11W (UNNAMED)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1010.gif
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 48 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM EAST
OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
IMPROVED OUTFLOW WITH A DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CENTER AND
ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TUTT CELL EAST OF TAIWAN. A 080209Z
ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS NUMEROUS 30-35 KNOT WIND VECTORS AROUND THE
CENTER. DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 30-35 KNOTS. RECENT SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE CENTER INDICATE SLP NEAR 995 MB AND 35-45 KNOT
SURFACE WINDS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE ASCAT,
DVORAK ESTIMATES AND SLP VALUE. OVERALL, THE SYSTEM IS CONSOLIDATING
AND WARRANTS UPGRADE TO TS STRENGTH BASED ON THE AVAILABLE EVIDENCE.
TS 11W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
SITUATED ACROSS EASTERN CENTRAL CHINA. TS 11W IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT
40-45 KNOTS AND SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 48. MODEL
TRACKERS, WHICH ARE LIMITED TO NOGAPS, WBAR, GFDN AND GFS, PLUS
ECMWF AND UKMO FIELDS SUPPORT THIS FORECAST...(more)
RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TD 11W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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