for Wednesday, 01 September 2010 [6:41 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Mon August 30 2010):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email & SMS advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TY KOMPASU (GLENDA).
KOMPASU (GLENDA) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 175 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 160 kph
TYPHOON KOMPASU [GLENDA/08W/1007]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 011
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Wed 01 September 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #15/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
KOMPASU (GLENDA) weakens slightly...now at Category 2 as it moves quickly towards the Korean Peninsula...Outer bands affecting Cheju Island and the Western and Southern parts of South Korea.
Residents and visitors along the Cheju Island, South & North Korea should closely monitor the progress of KOMPASU.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 days)*
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Wed Sep 01 2010
Location of Eye: 33.5º N Lat 124.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 185 km (100 nm) West of Cheju Island
Distance 2: 395 km (213 nm) NE of Shanghai, China
Distance 3: 510 km (275 nm) SSW of Seoul, South Korea
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 175 kph (95 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 215 kph (115 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 35 kph (19 kts)
Towards: Korean Peninsula
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 150 mm (Moderate)
Minimum Central Pressure: 952 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
Size (in Diameter): 390 km (210 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 22 ft (6.7 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 feet [1.8-2.6 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Wed Sep 01
TY KOMPASU is expected to move Northward for the next 12 hours, before recurving NE-ward across the Korean Peninsula. Continued weakening of this system is likely during its forecast period. The center will make landfall over the western part of Korea as a Category 1 typhoon...and will cross Korea, passing very close to Seoul before noontime tomorrow [2AM SEP 02: 35.7N 125.2E @ 160kph...2PM SEP 02: 38.6N 127.6E @ 110kph]. KOMPASU will move into the Sea of Japan tomorrow evening thru Friday as it begins Extratropical transition [2AM SEP 03: 40.9N 131.8E @ 85kph...2PM SEP 03: 42.1N 137.1E @ 55kph].
KOMPASU is a Category 2 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Current Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 175 km/hr (95 kts) with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (120 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 45 kilometers (25 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 160 kilometers (85 nautical miles).
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Just south of Kuril Islands after passing over Hokkaido (Japan)...becomes Extratropical [2PM SEP 04: 40.7N 149.5E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed can be expected from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS
KOMPASU's circulation continues to show a ragged 19-km diameter eye with a strong eyewall. Its outer bands spreading across Cheju Island and across the Korean peninsula. Tropical Storm Conditions are now occurring along the western part of Cheju Island...and will reach SW and Western portions of Korea by early tomorrow morning. Typhoon Conditions is forecast to arrive over Western Korea including Seoul around tomorrow morning, and over Central Korea during the afternoon. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 150 mm (Moderate) near the center of Kompasu. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. Under Tropical Storm Conditions, storm surge heights may reach 1 to 3 feet (0.3 to 0.9 meters) above ground level w/ large and dangerous battering waves...increasing to 6 or 8 feet (1.8 or 2.6 meters) during Typhoon Conditions...especially along the west and south coast of Korea beginning tomorrow.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TY KOMPASU (GLENDA)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0710.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 72 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO SHOWS SIGNS OF WEAKENING, BUT STILL DISPLAYS A
SYMMETRIC 15 NM EYE. THE CURRENT FORECAST INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD RANGING FROM 85 TO 102
KNOTS. THE SYSTEM MAINTAINS A SMALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AND WIND FIELD.
HOWEVER, AS THE SYSTEM TURNS TOWARDS THE KOREAN PENINSULA THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE WILL LIKLEY EXPAND AS THE TYPHOON BEGINS TO
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-LATITUDES (ASSUMING THE
CONVECTION HOLDS TOGETHER). AS A RESULT THE 34-KNOT WIND RADII AT
TAU 12 ARE SLIGHTLY LARGER THAN AT TAU 0. ONCE THE TYPHOON PASSES
OVER THE KOREAN PENINSULA IT WILL EMERGE INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN AS A
TROPICAL STORM. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN BEGIN TO TRANSITION INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT INTERACTS WITH A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY TO
THE NORTH. IT WILL COMPLETE THIS TRANSITION NEAR MISAWA. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN EXCEPTIONAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST TRACK...(more)
>> KOMPASU, meaning: Circinus; a V-shaped device for describing circles or circular arcs. Name contributed by: Japan.
RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TY KOMPASU (GLENDA)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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