Saturday, September 04, 2010

TS MALOU [HENRY] - Update #07

 


for Saturday, 04 September 2010 [12:31 PM PhT]


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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Fri September 03 2010):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email & SMS advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TS MALOU (HENRY).


MALOU (HENRY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 70 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 kph

TROPICAL STORM MALOU [HENRY/10W/1009]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 007

12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Sat 04 September 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #10/SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)

MALOU
(HENRY) slows down as it prepares to leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). This system will continue to induce the SW Monsoon (Habagat) bringing on-&-off rains across Western Luzon...improving weather conditions in most parts of the Philippines.

Residents and visitors along Taiwan, Yaeyama Islands, & Eastern China should closely monitor the progress of MALOU.

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Sat Sep 04 2010
Location of Center: 24.3º N Lat 127.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 260 km (140 nm) SSW of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 2: 295 km (160 nm) ESE of Ishigaki Island
Distance 3: 560 km (302 nm) ESE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 4: 680 km (367 nm) NE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (40 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 07 kph (04 kts)
Towards: Yaeyama Islands-Eastern China Area
6-hr Rain Amounts (Over the eastern rainbands): 180 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 520 km (280 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 16 ft (4.9 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1 feet [0.3 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PhT Sat Sep 04

ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 48 hours)*

TS MALOU's forecast remains unchanged. It is expected to move WNW to NW-ward within the next 24 hours - exiting the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by tonight [8PM SEP 04: 24.9N 125.7E @ 65kph...8AM SEP 05: 25.8N 124.8E @ 75kph]. By Sunday morning, the storm will approaching the coast of Eastern China w/ increased wind speeds [8AM SEP 06: 28.7N 122.8E @ 95kph].

Current Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 65 km/hr (35 kts) with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-85 km/hr) extend outward up to 15 kilometers (8 nautical miles) from the center.

EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*

TUESDAY MORNING:  Very near the coast of Eastern China, or just to the east of Shanghai...peak intensity reached [8AM SEP 07: 31.6N 122.2E @ 100kph].
WEDNESDAY MORNING:  Recurving NNE-ward as it loses strength...moving into the Yellow Sea [8AM SEP 08: 34.7N 122.6E @ 75kph]
THURSDAY MORNING:  Off the Yellow Sea...approaching the west coast of North Korea...becoming Extratropical [8AM SEP 09: 37.4N 124.3E @ 65kph]

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed can be expected from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS

MALOU's circulation has been decoupled as another circulation (LPA 97W) NE of Okinawa tries to form...thereby, creating an interaction. Scattered rainbands affecting Okinawa, Ryukyu and Yaeyama Islands. No hazards and effects from this cyclone are taking place as of this time. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 50 mm (light rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 180 mm (Heavy) to the east of the center of MALOU or along its eastern rainbands. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

CURRENT SOUTHWEST MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with passing on-&-off rains and thunderstorms can be expected along these following affected areas: WESTERN & NW LUZON. Light to moderate SW winds (not in excess of 35 kph) can be expected today. Improving weather conditions now occurring across most parts of the Philippines.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!



External Links for TS MALOU (HENRY)


View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis

JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1010.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
          


JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) SAT 04 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 24.2N 127.0E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (MALOU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 032330Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW DEEP
CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ADDITIONAL DEEP CONVECTION, POSSIBLY
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE, 150 NM EAST OF TS 10W. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED, WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE, ON ANIMATED MSI AND
THE AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30 TO 35 FROM PGTW, KNES,
AND  RJTD. THIS INTENSITY IS VERIFIED BY OBSERVATIONS NORTH OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION INDICATING 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND BAROMETER MEASUREMENTS
OF 997 MB  AND 999 MB. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW, PREVIOUSLY IMPINGING
OUTFLOW ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF TS 10W, HAS MOVED OFF TO THE
SOUTHWEST ALLOWING THE DIFFLUENT REGION OF THE LOW TO ENHANCE OUTFLOW
OVER THE SYSTEM. THE RECENT STORM MOTION IS SLOWER AND MORE WESTWARD
THEN THE PREVIOUS TRACK WHICH MAY BE AN INDICATION OF DIRECT CYCLONE
INTERACTION (DCI) WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
EAST OF OKINAWA.
..(more)

>> MALOU, meaning: AgateName contributed by: Macao, China.
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RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART
:


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RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART
:


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RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE
:


> Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


> Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
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LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP)
 




> Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
 
NOTE:
 
  * - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

   
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
   
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS MALOU (HENRY)...go visit our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

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