for Sunday, 05 September 2010 [12:40 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Fri September 03 2010):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email & SMS advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TS MALOU (HENRY).
MALOU (HENRY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 75 kph
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
TROPICAL STORM MALOU [HENRY/10W/1009]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 010
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Sun 05 September 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #14/SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
MALOU (HENRY) poorly organized off the East China Sea...relocated to the west of its previous position. Its center has become fully exposed (or cloudless) w/ most of its rain-cloud convection displaced to the north & northeast.
Residents and visitors along the Korean Peninsula should closely monitor the progress of MALOU.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 48 hours)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Sun Sep 05 2010
Location of Center: 27.9º N Lat 125.1º E Lon [Relocated]
Distance 1: 325 km (175 nm) NW of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 2: 475 km (257 nm) NE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 3: 510 km (277 nm) SE of Shanghai, China
Distance 4: 635 km (345 nm) SSW of Cheju Island
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (40 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 19 kph (10 kts)
Towards: Korean Peninsula
6-hr Rain Amounts (East of the Center): 100 mm (Moderate)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 665 km (360 nm) / Avg/Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 18 ft (5.4 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1 feet [0.3 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PhT Sun Sep 05
TS MALOU is expected to continue moving Northward within the next 24 before recurving towards the NNE to NE-ward into South Korea...some strengthening is still likely tonight or tomorrow [8PM SEP 05: 29.6N 124.0E @ 75kph...8AM SEP 06: 31.3N 123.8E @ 85kph] . This system will be passing well to the WNW of Cheju Island on Tuesday morning as it approaches the West Coast of South Korea [8AM SEP 07: 34.6N 124.9E @ 85kph].
Current Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 65 km/hr (35 kts) with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-85 km/hr) extend outward up to 35 kilometers (20 nautical miles) from the center, especially along the northeast & east quadrant.
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Making landfall over South Korea, passing well to the south of Seoul...becoming Extratropical [8AM SEP 08: 36.7N 127.4E @ 65kph].
THURSDAY MORNING: No longer a Tropical Cyclone...becomes Extratropical...accelerating ENE while off the East coast of the Korean Peninsula [8AM SEP 09: 37.9N 129.9E @ 45kph]
FRIDAY MORNING: Moving ENE to Eastward across the central part of the Sea of Japan [8AM SEP 10: 38.6N 133.8E @ 45kph]
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed can be expected from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS
MALOU's low-level circulation center (LLCC) has become fully-exposed or simply a center with less clouds. The storm's convective rain bands has been moving ahead towards the north...approaching Cheju Island. Strong winds associate with this system are located mainly along these rain bands. No serious hazards and effects from this cyclone are taking place as of this time, except for rainfall, squalls and thunderstorms located within the northward-moving rain bands. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 50 mm (light rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 100 mm (Moderate) situated just to the east of MALOU's low-level center or along the eastern quadrant. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.
CURRENT SOUTHWEST MONSOON INTENSITY: WEAK >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with passing on-&-off rains and thunderstorms can be expected along these following affected areas: ILOCOS NORTE, ILOCOS SUR, ABRA, KALINGA, WESTERN CAGAYAN, & BATANES-BABUYAN-CALAYAN ISLANDS. Light to moderate SW winds (not in excess of 35 kph) can be expected today.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TS MALOU (HENRY)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1010.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION FLARING APPROXIMATELY 125
NM TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS CONVECTION MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER
GRADIENT FLOW ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN FLANK OF THE LLCC, OR A POSSIBLE
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROAD GYRE-LIKE
PATTERN. MSI AND A 042317Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS CONFIRM THE LO-
CATION OF THE EXPOSED LLCC WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
RJTD...(more)
>> MALOU, meaning: Agate. Name contributed by: Macao, China.
RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS MALOU (HENRY)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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