for Wednesday, 15 September 2010 [6:40 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wed September 15 2010):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email & SMS advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TD 12W (INDAY).
12W (INDAY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 55 kph
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W [INDAY]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 003
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Wed 15 September 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #003/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
Tropical Depression 12W (INDAY) slows down as it tracks northwesterly in the direction of Yaeyama-Okinawa Islands...likely to become a Tropical Storm tonight.
Residents and visitors along Batanes, Okinawa, Yaeyema and Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of 12W (INDAY).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Wed Sep 15 2010
Location of Center: 20.9º N Lat 127.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 595 km (322 nm) ENE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 2: 625 km (338 nm) South of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 3: 685 km (370 nm) NE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 4: 775 km (418 nm) SE of Taipei, Taiwan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Present Movement: NW @ 15 kph (08 kts)
Towards: Taiwan-Okinawa Area
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 240 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TD
Size (in Diameter): --- / (N/A)
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Wed Sep 15
12W is expected to slow down further and turn north...gaining strength within the next 2 days while over the Northern Philippine Sea, south of Okinawa. [2PM SEP 16: 21.9N 127.3E @ 95kph...2PM SEP 17: 23.3N 127.5E @ 110kph].
Current Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 55 km/hr (30 kts) with higher gusts.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Turns NNW-ward while just to the SW of Okinawa...near typhoon status [2PM SEP 18: 24.8N 126.9E @ 110kph].
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Attains Typhoon strength (Category 1)...shifting its track more to the West after passing between Okinawa and Yaeyama Islands [2PM SEP 19: 26.6N 124.8E @ 120kph].
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Maintains Typhoon intensity...approaches the coast of Eastern China [2PM SEP 20: 27.9N 122.1E @ 120kph].
>> Alternate Forecast Scenario (AFS): There is a possibility that 12W will track towards Taiwan earlier than expected - if the developing High Pressure Ridge to the north strengthens quickly and steer the storm westward.
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed can be expected from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS
12W's circulation continues to organize while moving northwestward. This system is not yet affecting any islands or coastal areas at this time. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 230 mm (Heavy) near the center of 12W (INDAY). Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.
CURRENT I.T.C.Z. INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with scattered to widespread rains and heavy thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: METRO MANILA, CENTRAL & SOUTHERN LUZON, PALAWAN, AND VISAYAS. Light SE to variable winds (not in excess of 20 kph) can be expected along these areas today.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TD 12W (INDAY)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1210.gif
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 12W (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
340 NM SOUTH OF OKINAWA, JAPAN HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 150456 AMSRE 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW TIGHTLY CURVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
PERSISTING ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK O THE SYSTEM. THERE IS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD, AS WELL AS A
150128Z ASCAT PASS INDICATING 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS WITHIN THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF TD 12W CONTINUES TO HINDER POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
STILL REMAINS MODERATE AND OVERALL TD 12W IS EXPERIENCING ENHANCED
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
SYSTEM CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED
SOUTH OF JAPAN. BY TAU 24, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE AND ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO SLOW AND TRACK
NORTHWARD. TD 12W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY WITHIN THIS WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS ENHANCED BY THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES AND THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL TO
THE EAST. BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72 TD 12W IS EXPECTED TO TURN BACK
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN NORTH
OF THE SYSTEM. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST PHILOSOPHY; HOWEVER THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS
FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS...(more)
RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TD 12W (INDAY)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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