for Wednesday, 08 September 2010 [12:28 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wed September 08 2010):
Now issuing 6-hrly web, email & SMS advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on the newly-formed TD 11W (UNNAMED).
11W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 40 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 kph
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W [UNNAMED]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 001
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Wed 08 September 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #01/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
The strong disturbance (LPA) off the Bashi Channel, just north of Batanes Islands has strengthened into Tropical Depression 11W (UNNAMED)...moving WSW into the South China Sea...threatens Southeastern China. Rainbands affecting Northern Luzon including the smaller islands of Batanes, Calayan and Babuyan.
Residents and visitors along Southeastern China, Taiwan and Extreme Northern Luzon should closely monitor the progress of 11W.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 2 days)*
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Wed Sep 08 2010
Location of Center: 21.1º N Lat 120.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 170 km (92 nm) SSW of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Distance 2: 190 km (103 nm) WNW of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 3: 220 km (120 nm) WNW of Basco, Batanes
Distance 4: 425 km (230 nm) SE of Shantou, China
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Present Movement: WSW @ 19 kph (10 kts)
Towards: Gunagdong-Fujian Area
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 180 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Size (in Diameter): 350 km (190 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 9 ft (2.7 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PhT Wed Sep 08
TD 11W continues to consolidate over the Bashi Channel while moving into the South China Sea. This depression is expected to turn WNW to NW-ward throughout the forecast period. It will move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tonight and become a Tropical Storm, as it heads toward the Guangdong-Fujian Provinces of China [8PM SEP 08: 21.5N 119.6E @ 65kph]. 11W will reach its peak intensity by tomorrow morning as it approaches the coast of SE China [8AM SEP 09: 22.2N 118.6E @ 75kph], and will make landfall in between the cities of Shantou and Xiamen by tomorrow evening [8PM SEP 09: 23.6N 117.4E @ 65kph]. On Friday morning, 11W will dissipate over the mountains of Jiangxi Province [8AM SEP 10: 25.3N 115.9E @ 35kph]
Current Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 55 km/hr (30 kts) with higher gusts.
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed can be expected from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS
11W's circulation continues to consolidate with its southern bands bringing scattered to widespread rains and thunderstorm across Northern Luzon including the smaller islands of Batanes, Calayan and Babuyan. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the its rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 180 mm (heavy) near the center of 11W. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.
CURRENT I.T.C.Z. INTENSITY: WEAK >> Sunny to mostly cloudy skies with isolated or scattered rains and thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: REST OF LUZON, METRO MANILA, BICOL REGION, PALAWAN, VISAYAS & MINDANAO. Light SW, South or SE winds (not in excess of 30 kph) can be expected along these areas.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TD 11W (UNNAMED)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1010.gif
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 48 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 11W (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
80 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) HAS MOVED UNDER THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST.
ADDITIONALLY, FORMATIVE BANDING HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED AND WRAPPED
TIGHTER INTO THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A RADAR
REFLECTIVITY LOOP FROM TAIWAN WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM KNES AND PGTW AND FROM A
SHIP OBSERVATION LESS THAN 60 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST REPORTING 30-KNOT
WINDS AND 1001 MB SEA LEVEL PRESSURE. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE ANIMATION
SHOWS GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND 11W MOVING AWAY FROM THE TROPICAL
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC (TUTT) CELL TO THE NORTHEAST THAT WAS EARLIER
HINDERING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND CAUSING HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). THE SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED BY A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE ANCHORED SOUTH OF JAPAN...(more)
RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
*NOT YET AVAILABLE
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TD 11W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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