for Thursday, 09 September 2010 [12:30 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wed September 08 2010):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email & SMS advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on the newly-formed TS MERANTI (11W).
MERANTI (11W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 75 kph
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
TROPICAL STORM MERANTI [11W/1010]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 004
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Thu 09 September 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #05/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
Tropical Storm 11W has been tracking northward...now internationally known as MERANTI...eyeing Southeastern China particularly the province of Fujian.
Residents and visitors along Southeastern China should closely monitor the progress of MERANTI.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 2 days)*
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Thu Sep 09 2010
Location of Center: 21.8º N Lat 119.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 135 km (72 nm) SW of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Distance 2: 280 km (152 nm) WNW of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 3: 315 km (170 nm) NW of Basco, Batanes
Distance 4: 320 km (172 nm) SE of Shantou, China
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 13 kph (07 kts)
Towards: Fujian Province
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 230 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 335 km (180 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 13 ft (3.9 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1 feet [0.3 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PhT Thu Sep 09
MERANTI has started moving northward...and will turn to the NNW later today. The center will intensify more while over the Taiwan Strait, and will make landfall over Fujian Province (in between the cities of Xiamen and Fuzhou) tomorrow noon or afternoon [8AM SEP 10: 24.0N 119.1E @ 75kph]. MERANTI will quickly weaken upon moving across the rugged terrain of Fujian Province tomorrow evening [8PM SEP 10: 25.7N 118.3E @ 65kph]. Complete dissipation is forecast on Saturday morning over Jiangxi Province [8AM SEP 11: 27.5N 118.0E @ 35kph].
Current Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 65 km/hr (35 kts) with higher gusts.
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed can be expected from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS
MERANTI's circulation has become more compact as it moves toward Southeastern China...its rainbands bringing scattered to widespread rains and thunderstorms across Southern Taiwan and the coastal areas of Eastern Guangdong and Fujian. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the its rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 230 mm (heavy) near the center of MERANTI. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.
CURRENT SOUTHWEST MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with on-and-off rains and thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: NORTHWESTERN LUZON (LA UNION UP TO ILOCOS PROVINCES), BATANES, CALAYAN, AND BABUYAN ISLANDS. Light to moderate SW winds (not in excess of 35 kph) can be expected along these areas today.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TS MERANTI (11W)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1010.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 48 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE
CENTER AND BEING SHEARED EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. DIRECT
CYCLONE INTERACTION (DCI) WITH A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
(TUTT) CELL, WHICH HAS REFLECTED DOWN TO THE SURFACE, HAS CAUSED TS
11W TO SLOW AND MAKE AN ABRUPT NORTHEASTWARD TURN FROM WHAT WAS
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
POSITION AND PAST SIX HOUR MOTION BASED ON MSI, THE TAIWAN RADAR
LOOP, AND A 082332Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD.
3. FORECAST REASONING...(more)
>> MERANTI, meaning: A kind of tree. Name contributed by: Malaysia.
RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS MERANTI (11W)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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