for Wednesday, 15 September 2010 [12:40 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wed September 15 2010):
Now issuing 6-hrly web, email & SMS advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TD 12W (INDAY) as it formed off the Northern Philippine Sea.
12W (INDAY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 55 kph
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W [INDAY]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 002
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Wed 15 September 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #002/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
Tropical Depression 12W (INDAY) continues to track NW towards Taiwan-Okinawa Area...not yet a threat to the Philippines.
Residents and visitors along Batanes, Okinawa, Yaeyema and Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of 12W (UNNAMED).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (4 to 5 days)*
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Wed Sep 15 2010
Location of Center: 20.6º N Lat 128.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 625 km (337 nm) East of Basco, Batanes
Distance 2: 655 km (353 nm) South of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 3: 705 km (380 nm) ENE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 4: 820 km (443 nm) SE of Taipei, Taiwan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Present Movement: NW @ 17 kph (09 kts)
Towards: Taiwan-Okinawa Area
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TD
Size (in Diameter): --- / (N/A)
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PhT Wed Sep 15
12W is expected to slow down on its forward speed and intensify for the next 2 days while over the Northern Philippine Sea, south of Okinawa. [8AM SEP 16: 20.8N 127.2E @ 85kph...8AM SEP 17: 21.5N 126.9E @ 95kph].
Current Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 55 km/hr (30 kts) with higher gusts.
SATURDAY MORNING: Drifting very slowly north-northeast, while south of Okinawa...near typhoon status [8AM SEP 18: 22.2N 127.2E @ 110kph].
SUNDAY MORNING: Attains Typhoon classification (Category 1)...shifting course from a slow NNE to a slightly faster NW track [8AM SEP 19: 23.3N 127.5E @ 120kph].
MONDAY MORNING: Maintains Typhoon strength...passing in between the islands of Yaeyama and Okinawa [8AM SEP 20: 25.4N 126.1E @ 120kph].
>> Alternate Forecast Scenario (AFS): There is a possibility that 12W will track towards Taiwan - if the developing High Pressure Ridge to the north strengthens and steer the storm westward.
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed can be expected from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS
12W's circulation continues to consolidate, with a possible secondary circulation forming to the east of the primary circulation. No effects and hazards are in place during this time until tomorrow. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis.
CURRENT I.T.C.Z. INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with scattered to widespread rains and heavy thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: METRO MANILA, CENTRAL & SOUTHERN LUZON, PALAWAN, AND VISAYAS. Light SE to variable winds (not in excess of 20 kph) can be expected along these areas today.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TD 12W (INDAY)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1210.gif
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 12W (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
380 NM SOUTH OF OKINAWA, JAPAN HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE MAJORITY OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON A 142138Z CORIOLIS MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT SHOWS CURVED LOW
LEVEL CONVECTIVE BANDING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE PGTW
DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 30 KNOTS AND DROPSONDE OBSERVATIONS OF 27 TO 30
KNOTS AT 142157Z AND 142209Z RESPECTIVELY. A TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) TO THE WEST AND NORTH IS CAUSING
SUBSIDENCE AND LIMITING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THERE IS MODERATE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TD 12W IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...(more)
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
*NOT YET AVAILABLE
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TD 12W (INDAY)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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