Thursday, September 02, 2010

TS LIONROCK [FLORITA] making landfall off Southern Fujian...[Update #18]

 


for Thursday, 02 September 2010 [7:34 AM PhT]


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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sun August 29 2010):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web & e-mail advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TS LIONROCK (FLORITA).


LIONROCK (FLORITA) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 kph
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM LIONROCK [FLORITA/07W/1006]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 018

7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Thu 02 September 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #23/CWB RADAR
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)

LIONROCK
(FLORITA) has accelerated...now making landfall over Southern Fujian (in between the cities of Shantou and Xiamen). Tropical Storm Conditions now occurring across Southern Fujian and Eastern Guangdong.

Residents and visitors along Southeastern and Southern China should closely monitor the progress of LIONROCK.

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 7:00 AM PhT thu Sep 02 2010
Location of Center [RADAR FIX]: 23.9º N Lat 117.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 90 km (48 nm) NE of Shantou, China
Distance 2: 95 km (50 nm) SW of Xiamen, China
Distance 3: 330 km (178 nm) NW of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Distance 4: 375 km (203 nm) ENE of Hong Kong
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph (45 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph (55 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 15 kph (08 kts)
Towards: Southern Fujian-Eastern Guangdong
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 250 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 370 km (200 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 20 ft (6.0 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 feet [0-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Thu Sep 02

ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 2 days)*

TS LIONROCK is expected to track West to WNW across the rugged terrains of Southern Fujian and Eastern Guangdong today...dissipating rapidly overnight. It will be downgraded into a depression early tomorrow [2AM SEP 03: 24.5N 115.7E @ 55kph]. Dissipation of this system is forecast by tomorrow afternoon [2PM SEP 03: 24.9N 114.4E @ 35kph].

Current Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 85 km/hr (45 kts) with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 120 kilometers (65 nautical miles) from the center.


*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed can be expected from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS

LIONROCK's circulation has become smaller and compact during its approach off the coast of Southern Fujian...its outer rainbands spreading across Southeastern China. Tropical Storm Conditions currently occurring across Southern Fujian and portions of Eastern Guangdong. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the its rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 250 mm (heavy) near the center of LIONROCK. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

CURRENT SOUTHWEST MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with passing on-&-off showers, rains & thunderstorms can be expected along these following affected areas: REST OF LUZON including METRO MANILA, MINDORO, WESTERN BICOL, PARTS OF WESTERN VISAYAS-MINDANAO AND THE BATANES-CALAYAN-BABUYAN GROUP OF ISLANDS. Light to moderate SW winds (not in excess of 40 kph) can be expected today.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


External Links for TS LIONROCK (FLORITA)

View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis

JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0710.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 36 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
               


JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) THU 02 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 23.3N 118.4E.
*ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 011604Z TRMM 85 GHZ COMPOSITE IMAGE INDICATE A WELL-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK (5-10 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED NORTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON TAIWAN RADAR FIXES AND
THE 011604Z TRMM IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS. TS 07W
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE LOW-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL
BY TAU 12. THE MODEL TRACKERS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND SUPPORT
THIS TRACK. TS 07W SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER LAND BETWEEN TAU 24
AND 36.
..(more)

>> LIONROCK, meaning: A famous peak in Hong Kong, overlooking Kowloon BayName contributed by: Hong Kong.
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RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART
:


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RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART
:


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RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE
:


> Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


> Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
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LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP)
 




> Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
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NOTE:
 
  * - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

   
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
   
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS LIONROCK (FLORITA)...go visit our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

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