for Friday, 03 September 2010 [12:25 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Fri September 03 2010):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email & SMS advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TD 10W (HENRY).
10W (HENRY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W [HENRY]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 004
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Fri 03 September 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #06/SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
Tropical Depression 10W (HENRY) continues to induce the Southwest Monsoonal Flow (aka. Habagat) across the Philippines...still moving quickly northwestward while it consolidates over the northeasternmost part of the Philippine Sea. Threatens Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands.
Residents and visitors along Okinawa, Ryukyus, Taiwan, Southern Japan & Korea should closely monitor the progress of 10W.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 48 hours)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Fri Sep 03 2010
Location of Center: 23.0º N Lat 132.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 575 km (310 nm) SE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 2: 830 km (448 nm) ESE of Ishigaki Island
Distance 3: 1,090 km (590 nm) ENE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Present Movement: NW @ 31 kph (17 kts)
Towards: Okinawa-Ryukyus Area
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 200 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Size (in Diameter): 185 km (100 nm) / Small
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PhT Fri Sep 03
TD 10W's latest forecast suite has changed, particularly on its intensity. As of now, the system is no longer forecast to reach typhoon intensity. It will continue moving quickly towards the NW for the next 24 hours before turning NNW throughout the period. 10W is expected to move out of PAR tonight and pass over the island of Okinawa tomorrow morning [8PM SEP 03: 24.6N 130.1E @ 65kph...8AM SEP 04: 26.2N 127.8E @ 75kph]. Its forward speed will slow down upon moving into the East China Sea, NW of Okinawa on Saturday morning [8AM SEP 05: 28.7N 125.8E @ 100kph]. The increase in strength on this forecast is still likely but will no longer reach the typhoon threshold of 120 km/hr.
Current Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 55 km/hr (30 kts) with higher gusts. The forecast path of this cyclone is very similar to Typhoon KOMPASU (GLENDA) with a little deviation to the left of its track after 24 hours.
MONDAY MORNING: Still moving NNW well to the SW of Cheju Island or off the East China Sea [8AM SEP 06: 30.8N 125.3E @ 110kph].
TUESDAY MORNING: Passing well to the west of Cheju Island...reaches peak strength...moving into the Yellow Sea [8AM SEP 07: 33.1N 124.3E @ 110kph]
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Losing strength as it approaches the east coast of Shandong Province of China [8AM SEP 08: 36.2N 123.3E @ 100kph]
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed can be expected from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS
10W's circulation still slightly organized while over the NE part of the Philippine Sea. No hazards and effects from this depression are taking place as of this time. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 50 mm (light rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 200 mm (Heavy) near the center of 10W. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.
CURRENT SOUTHWEST MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with passing on-&-off rains and thunderstorms can be expected along these following affected areas: LUZON including METRO MANILA, PALAWAN, CALAMIAN GROUP, MINDORO, MASBATE AND BICOL REGION. Light to moderate SW winds (not in excess of 35 kph) can be expected today.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TD 10W (HENRY)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1010.gif
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 10W (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340
NM SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) TO THE WEST. FLARING, DEEP
CONVECTION IS EVIDENT OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC),
BUT ONLY WEAK INFLOW BANDING IS SEEN ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS SOME OUTFLOW TO THE EAST,
BUT THAT THE TUTT IS IMPINGING ON THE OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.
A 022303Z SSMIS PASS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS A SYMMETRICAL LLCC
AND A SMALL POCKET OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. POSITION IS BASED ON THE 022303Z
SSMIS PASS AND A POSITION FIX FROM PGTW WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
INTENSITY IS BASED ON A DVORAK INTENSITY FIX FROM PGTW...(more)
RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TD 10W (HENRY)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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