Thursday, September 02, 2010

TD 10W [UNNAMED] - Update #01

 


for Thursday, 02 September 2010 [2:27 PM PhT]


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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thu September 02 2010):

Now issuing 6-hrly web, email & SMS advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on the newly-formed TD 10W.


10W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 10W [UNNAMED]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 001

2:00 PM PhT (06:00 GMT) Thu 02 September 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #02/SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)

The strong disturbance (LPA) NW of Guam has strengthened into Tropical Depression 10W (UNNAMED)...moving fast on a northwesterly direction...likely to enter the NE border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tonight.

Residents and visitors along Okinawa, Ryukyus, Taiwan, Southern Japan & Korea should closely monitor the progress of 10W.

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 2:00 PM PhT Thu Sep 02 2010
Location of Center: 19.8º N Lat 136.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 190 km (103 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 2: 1,165 km (630 nm) SE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 1: 1,545 km (835 nm) ESE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Present Movement: NW @ 35 kph (19 kts)
Towards: Okinawa-Ryukyus Area
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 100 mm (Moderate)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Size (in Diameter): 185 km (100 nm) / Small
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 8 ft (2.4 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PhT Thu Sep 02

ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 12 hours)*

TD 10W is expected to continue moving quickly NW-ward and will enter PAR tonight or tomorrow - as a tropical storm [8AM SEP 03: 21.6N 134.3E @ 75kph]. It will gain more strength as it moves out of the PAR on Saturday morning [8AM SEP 04: 24.4N 130.6E @ 100kph].

Current Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 55 km/hr (30 kts) with higher gusts.

EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*

SUNDAY MORNING:  Passing to the NE of Okinawa Island as a Category 1 Typhoon [8AM SEP 05: 26.9N 128.2E @ 120kph].
MONDAY MORNING:  Turning northward while over the East China Sea...continues gaining strength [8AM SEP 06: 30.0N 127.2E @ 150kph]
TUESDAY MORNING:  Approaching the southern coast of South Korea...peak intensity reached...moving NNE-ward [8AM SEP 07: 34.2N 128.7E @ 160kph]

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed can be expected from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS

10W's circulation is still on its early stages of development...currently located with an active monsoon trough across the Philippines and into the Marianas. No hazards and effects from this depression are taking place as of this time. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 20 mm (light rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 100 mm (Moderate). Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


External Links for TD 10W (UNNAMED)

View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis

JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1010.gif
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
 
       


JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) THU 02 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 18.0N 138.3E.
*TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 10W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 760
NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 012217Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A
SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING
OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON THIS IMAGE WITH MARGINAL CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND
KNES.
..(more)
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RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART
:


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RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE
:


> Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


> Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
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LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP)
 




> Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
 
NOTE:
 
  * - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

   
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
   
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TD 10W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
   
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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