for Sunday, 19 September 2010 [12:05 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sun September 19 2010):
Resumes 6-hrly web & email advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TY FANAPI (INDAY).
FANAPI (INDAY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 195 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 180 kph
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
TYPHOON FANAPI [INDAY/12W/1011]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 014
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Sun 19 September 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #018/Radar/SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
Typhoon FANAPI (INDAY) weakens overland as it continues to cross the southern portion of Central Taiwan. Stormy weather being felt across most of the island nation.
Residents and visitors along Taiwan, Fujian and Eastern Guangdong should closely monitor the progress of FANAPI.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 days)*
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Sun Sep 19 2010
Location of Center: 23.2º N Lat 120.9º E Lon {RADAR/SAT FIX}
Distance 1: 90 km (48 nm) NNE of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Distance 2: 115 km (63 nm) SW of Hualien, Taiwan
Distance 3: 210 km (113 nm) SSW of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 4: 320 km (173 nm) NNW of Basco, Batanes
Distance 5: 320 km (173 nm) SE of Xiamen, China
Distance 6: 430 km (230 nm) East of Shantou, China
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 175 kph (95 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 215 kph (115 kts)
Present Movement: WSW @ 26 kph (14 kts)
Towards: Western Taiwan-SE China Area
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 150 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 3
Size (in Diameter): 610 km (330 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 28 ft (8.5 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 9-12 ft [2.7-3.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PhT Sun Sep 19
FANAPI is expected to resume its westerly track this afternoon, passing just north of Kaohsiung City and will exit Western Taiwan into Taiwan Strait tonight [8PM SEP 19: 23.7N 119.3E @ 165kph]. The effects of land interaction will weaken the typhoon down to Category 1 and will make its last landfall very close to Shantou City or along the Fujian-Guangdong tomorrow morning [8AM SEP 20: 23.6N 116.8E @ 150kph]. FANAPI will start to dissipate quickly as it moves inland across Guangdong Province tomorrow afternoon until Tuesday morning [8PM SEP 20: 23.8N 114.2E @ 95kph...8AM SEP 21: 24.1N 111.9E @ 55kph].
Current Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 185 km/hr (100 kts) with higher gusts. FANAPI is still a Category 3 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale. It should continue losing strength as it interacts with the mountains of Central Taiwan. Typhoon Force Winds (>118 km/hr) extend outward up to 65 kilometers (35 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 280 kilometers (150 nm).
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Dissipated as an area of low pressure over Western Guangdong [8AM SEP 22: 24.1N 109.7E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS
FANAPI's circulation has started deteriorating due to Taiwan's rugged terrain. The eye has completely filled-in with only a mere signature detected over doppler radar. At 8AM this morning, Hualien Weather Station in Taiwan has reported tropical storm force winds (82 kph) blowing from the NE to ENE and gusting up to 215 kph. The inner and outer bands of this typhoon continues to spread across the whole of Taiwan including Taiwan Strait. Tropical Storm Conditions will continue to affect the whole of Taiwan until this afternoon...with Typhoon Conditions along the south-central part of Taiwan. Tropical Storm Conditions will start commencing late this afternoon across Taiwan Strait and along the coastal areas of Southeastern China later this evening. The eastern coast of Southeastern China particularly areas between the cities of Shantou and Xiamen will begin to experience Typhoon Conditions by tomorrow morning (click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis). 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands or over Northern and Central Taiwan...with isolated amounts of up to 150 mm (heavy) near the center of FANAPI or over Eastern Taiwan (click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount). Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 9 to 12 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Eastern and Northern Taiwan today...and over Western Taiwan, and the eastern coast of Southeastern China tonight until tomorrow. Extensive damage is likely on this type of storm surge.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
Tropical Disturbance 90W (LPA/1007 MB) is now the subject of a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert...likely to become a Tropical Depression later tonight or tomorrow. Its center was located near lat 14.1N lon 151.1E...or about 595 km ESE of Saipan...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 35 kph near the center...moving West @ 28 kph...towards Northern Marianas. The 48-hour Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential is now at 90% (High Chance).
External Links for TY FANAPI (INDAY)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1210.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 72 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*TYPHOON (TY) 12W (FANAPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 80 NM SOUTH OF
TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOUD-FILLED
EYE AS TY 12W MAKES LANDFALL OVER TAIWAN. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE INITIAL POSITION, WHICH IS BASED ON AN EYE FIX AND A TAIWAN
RADAR FIX. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 90 TO 115 KNOTS. ADDITIONALLY,
OBSERVATIONS FROM HUALIEN, TAIWAN ARE INDICATING MEAN SURFACE LEVEL
WINDS OF 45KTS WITH GUSTS OF 115 KNOTS, APPROXIMATELY 20NM TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW
EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, HOWEVER POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS SOMEWHAT
HINDERED BY AN ANTICYCLONE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM CAUSING INCREASED
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TY 12W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
ANCHORED OVER NORTHEASTERN CHINA...(more)
>> FANAPI, meaning: Small atoll islands; sandy islands. Name contributed by: Micronesia.
RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
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LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TY FANAPI (INDAY)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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