Wednesday, September 22, 2010

TS MALAKAS [13W] - Update #06

 


for Wednesday, 22 September 2010 [12:59 PM PhT]


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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday Sep 20 2010):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web & email advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TS MALAKAS (13W).


MALAKAS (13W/1012) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 75 kph

TROPICAL STORM MALAKAS [13W/1012]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 006

12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Wed 22 September 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #008/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)

Tropical Storm
MALAKAS (13W) continues moving slowly West to WNW...circulation not looking healthy at the moment.

Residents and visitors along Iwo To and Chichijima should closely monitor the progress of MALAKAS.

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Wed Sep 22 2010
Location of Center: 19.4º N Lat 142.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 585 km (315 nm) NW of Saipan, CNMI
Distance 2: 610 km (330 nm) SSE of Iwo To
Distance 3: 775 km (418 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 4: 2,135 km (1,153 nm) ESE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph (40 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 09 kph (05 kts)
Towards: Iwo To-Chichijima Area
24-hr Rain Amounts (near center): 510 mm (Very Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 405 km (220 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 15 ft (4.5 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-2 ft [0.3-0.6 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PhT Wed Sep 22

ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 2 days)*

MALAKAS is expected to move northwesterly within the next 24 hours [8AM SEP 23: 22.1N 140.3E @ 100kph]...and will turn north on Thursday night through Friday morning. MALAKAS will slowly intensify...becoming a typhoon while passing west of Iwo To on Friday morning [8AM SEP 24: 23.1N 140.3E @ 120kph].

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 75 km/hr (40 knots) with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-95 km/hr) extend outward up to 100 kilometers (55 nautical miles) from the center.

EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 4 days)*

SATURDAY MORNING:  Accelerating towards the northeast after passing west of Chichijima...attains peak intensity [8AM SEP 25: 32.7N 144.2E @ 160kph].
SUNDAY MORNING:  Becomes Extratropical south of Kuril Islands [8AM SEP 26: 43.0N 153.7E @ 100kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS

MALAKAS' circulation remains slightly organized...with most of its rain bands located south of the center. Weather conditions across the Northern Marianas has generally improved, as the system moves farther away (click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis). 24-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 200 mm (light to heavy rain) can be expected along the its rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 510 mm (very heavy) near the center of MALAKAS, especially along the southern inner bands. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

CURRENT MONSOON TROUGH (ITCZ) INTENSITY: WEAK >> Sunny to mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers, rains & thunderstorms can be expected along these following affected areas: SOUTHERN LUZON, BICOL REGION, VISAYAS AND MINDANAO. Light to moderate SE, East, or NE winds (not in excess of 25 kph) can be expected today.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!



External Links for TS MALAKAS (13W)


View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis

JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1310.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 96 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
        


JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) WED 22 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 19.5N 142.5E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (MALAKAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
325 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, A 211629Z AMSR-E 89GHZ IMAGE, AND A
212321Z VISUAL IMAGE ALL COMBINE TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE POSITION
CONFIDENCE. THE SYSTEM HAS A FULLY-EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TIGHTLY-WRAPPED SHALLOW CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. THE BULK OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION IS BEING DISPLACED EQUATORWARD FROM THE LLCC. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OUTFLOW OVER THE POLEWARD QUADRANTS IS
BEING SUPPRESSED BY CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT, RESULTING IN THE STORM
DEVELOPING AT A LOWER-THAN-CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. THE SYSTEM IS
TRACKING STEADILY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS A DEEPENING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE YELLOW SEA. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS FROM PGTW
AND RJTD
..(more)

>> MALAKAS, meaning: Strong; powerfulName contributed by: Philippines.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:


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RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART
:


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RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE
:


> Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


> Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
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LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP)
 



> Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
 
NOTE:
 
  * - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

   
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
   
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS MALAKAS (13W)...go visit our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

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