for Monday, 06 September 2010 [6:20 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Fri September 03 2010):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email & SMS advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TS MALOU (HENRY).
MALOU (HENRY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 90 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 95 kph
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
TROPICAL STORM MALOU [HENRY/10W/1009]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 014
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Mon 06 September 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #19/SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
MALOU (HENRY) moving slowly NNE-ward...still south of Cheju Island, but its rain bands now lashing the area.
Residents and visitors along the Korean Peninsula should closely monitor the progress of MALOU.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 48 hours)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 days)*
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Mon Sep 06 2010
Location of Center: 32.5º N Lat 126.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 115 km (62 nm) South of Cheju Island
Distance 2: 320 km (173 nm) WSW of Sasebo, Japan
Distance 3: 380 km (205 nm) SW of Busan, S.Korea
Distance 4: 495 km (268 nm) NE of Shanghai, China
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph (40 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
Present Movement: NNE @ 07 kph (04 kts)
Towards: Korean Peninsula
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 190 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 720 km (390 nm) / Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 18 ft (5.4 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1 feet [0.3 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Mon Sep 06
TS MALOU will continue to move NNE-ward within the next 24 hours, passing over the eastern part of Cheju Island tonight. New forecast now showed the system no longer making landfall over South Korea...it will just be passing off the coast of South Korea late tomorrow morning, with the center moving directly across Busan City tomorrow afternoon [2PM SEP 07: 35.3N 129.2E @ 65kph]. On Wednesday, MALOU will be accelerating ENE-ward across the Sea of Japan, and becoming Extratropical [2AM SEP 08: 37.0N 136.0E @ 45kph].
Current Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 75 km/hr (40 kts) with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-95 km/hr) extend outward up to 65 kilometers (35 nautical miles) from the center, especially along the NE and SE quadrants.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Moving into the NW Pacific Ocean, after crossing Central Honshu [2PM SEP 09: 37.0N 144.1E @ 45kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed can be expected from time to time.
ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 48 hours)*
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS
MALOU's strong circulation has remain partly sheared, with most of its strong winds and rain-cloud convection to the NE of the center...rain bands continues to spread across Cheju Island and South Korea. Tropical Storm Conditions may reach Cheju Island tonight...and over the Southern Coast of South Korea by early tomorrow morning. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 50 mm (light rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 190 mm (Heavy) near the center of MALOU. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
A new, developing Tropical Disturbance 90W (LPA/1005 MB) has been detected to the east of Taiwan. Located near lat 22.4N lon 124.0E...or about 295 km NNE of Basco, Batanes...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 25 kph near the center...Quasi-Stationary. The 24 to 48-Hr. Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential on this system is now at 30%.
External Links for TS MALOU (HENRY)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1010.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 72 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (MALOU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 50 NM
SOUTH OF CHEJU ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED, BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST.
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION DUE TO THE BROAD
LLCC DEPICTED IN THE MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 060450Z AMSU
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWER THAN THE PGTW, RJTD
AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS BASED ON A 060108Z
SHOWING A MAXIMUM OF 25 KNOT WINDS WITH LIGHTER CENTRAL WINDS.
OBSERVATIONS FROM CHEJU ISLAND ARE REPORTING 18 TO 20 KNOT WINDS.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
REMAIN GOOD. TS MALOU IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. TS 10W
IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHEASTERLY AS IT ROUNDS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS AND BEGINS INTERACTING WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE NORTH.
TS MALOU IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER LAND IN SOUTH KOREA BY TAU 24.
BY TAU 36 IT SHOULD BECOME FULLY ABSORBED INTO THE MID-LATITDUE
WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT EXCEPT FOR GFDN AND NOGAPS, WHICH SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AND TRACK IT NORTHWARD WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
THIS FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS, WHICH
RECURVES TS 10W INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW...(more)
>> MALOU, meaning: Agate. Name contributed by: Macao, China.
RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TS MALOU (HENRY)...go visit our website @:
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