for Friday, 17 September 2010 [7:28 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Fri September 17 2010):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email & SMS advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TY FANAPI (INDAY).
FANAPI (INDAY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 125 kph
TYPHOON FANAPI [INDAY/12W/1011]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 007
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Fri 17 September 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #009/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
FANAPI (INDAY) has started turning very slowly towards the northwest...becomes a Typhoon.
Residents and visitors along Batanes, Okinawa-Ryukyus-Yaeyema Islands and Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of FANAPI.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Fri Sep 17 2010
Location of Eye: 22.2º N Lat 128.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 475 km (255 nm) SE of Ishigaki Island
Distance 2: 480 km (258 nm) South of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 3: 660 km (357 nm) ENE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 4: 730 km (395 nm) SE of Taipei, Taiwan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 130 kph (70 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 160 kph (85 kts)
Present Movement: NW @ 04 kph (02 kts)
Towards: Ishigaki-Taiwan Area
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 220 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 970 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 535 km (290 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 18 ft (5.4 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.5 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Fri Sep 17
FANAPI is expected to continue intensifying and move more to the west, due to a strong high pressure area building off the East China Sea. It will reach Category 2 status tomorrow morning [2AM SEP 18: 23.2N 126.8E @ 160kph]. By early Sunday morning, FANAPI will be passing over the Yaeyama Island Chain [2AM SEP 19: 23.7N 123.6E @ 165kph], and later in the afternoon will make landfall over Eastern Taiwan or very near Hualien City..crossing Central Taiwan Sunday night.
Current Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 130 km/hr (70 kts) with higher gusts. FANAPI is a Category 1 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale. More strengthening can be expected...and could attain Category 2 before the center reaches Taiwan's East Coast. Typhoon Force Winds (>118 km/hr) extend outward up to 35 kilometers (20 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 165 kilometers (90 nm).
MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Downgraded to a tropical storm while off the west coast of Taiwan...entering Taiwan Strait. It will make its final landfall Monday afternoon over Fujian, Southeastern China...very near the city of Xiamen [2AM SEP 20: 23.9N 119.7E @ 110kph].
TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Moving overland near the Fujian-Guangdong border...dissipating [2AM SEP 21: 24.9N 116.1E @ 75kph].
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Just an area of low pressure over China [2AM SEP 22: 26.6N 113.4E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS
FANAPI's circulation remains at sea...with improved convective banding on all sides. The advancing outer bands are expected to reach Yaeyama and Miyako Islands later this evening...and over Taiwan by Saturday evening. As of the moment, this system is not yet affecting any islands or coastal areas. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 75 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 220 mm (Heavy) near the center of FANAPI. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.
CURRENT I.T.C.Z. INTENSITY: WEAK >> Sunny to cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms especially in the afternoon or evening can be expected along the following affected areas: PALAWAN, AND VISAYAS. Light SE, North to variable winds (not in excess of 25 kph) can be expected over these areas today.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TY FANAPI (INDAY)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1210.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*TYPHOON (TY) 12W (FANAPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM SOUTH OF
OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND STRONG
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED ONLY BY 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS (DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD OF
4.0 AND KNES OF 4.5) AS IT IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF RELATIVELY LOW
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND THE LATEST PGTW
FIX POSITION INDICATE THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD,
TY 12W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RAPIDLY BUILDING OVER CHINA. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
TOWARD ISHIGAKIJIMA, FANAPI WILL EXPERIENCE REDUCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
WHILE ALSO ENCOUNTERING AN AREA OF VERY HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT,
ENABLING THE CYCLONE TO MAINTAIN ITS PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS. THE
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT
WITH THIS FORECAST TRACK...(more)
>> FANAPI, meaning: Small atoll islands; sandy islands. Name contributed by: Micronesia.
RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TY FANAPI (INDAY)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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