for Tuesday, 21 September 2010 [12:25 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday Sep 20 2010):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web & email advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TS 13W (UNNAMED).
13W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
TROPICAL STORM 13W [UNNAMED]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 003
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Tue 21 September 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #004/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
Tropical Storm 13W (UNNAMED) has been relocated as it tracks slightly west...rain bands affecting the northern parts of the Northern Mariana Islands.
Residents and visitors along Iwo To and Chichijima should closely monitor the progress of 13W.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS CURRENT MONSOON TROUGH (ITCZ) INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with an approaching TROPICAL WAVE - producing widespread showers, rains & heavy thunderstorms with squalls can be expected along these following affected areas: BICOL REGION, VISAYAS AND MINDANAO. Light to moderate SE, East, or NE winds (not in excess of 30 kph) can be expected today.
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Tue Sep 21 2010
Location of Center: 18.4º N Lat 145.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 360 km (195 nm) NNW of Saipan, CNMI
Distance 2: 815 km (440 nm) SSE of Iwo To
Distance 3: 1,065 km (575 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 4: 2,430 km (1,312 nm) ESE of Basco, Batanes.
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Present Movement: WSW @ 07 kph (04 kts)
Towards: Iwo To-Chichijima Area
18-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 250 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-2 ft [0.3-0.6 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PhT Tue Sep 21
13W is expected to start moving WNW to NW-ward within the next 24 to 48 hours...becoming a typhoon by Thursday morning [8AM SEP 22: 18.8N 143.2E @ 95kph...8AM SEP 23: 20.5N 141.3E @ 140kph].
Current Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 65 km/hr (35 kts) with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-85 km/hr) extend outward up to 75 kilometers (40 nautical miles) from the center.
FRIDAY MORNING: In the vicinity of Iwo To (formerly Iwo Jima) as a Category 2 Typhoon...accelerating NNE towards Chichijima Island [8AM SEP 24: 24.8N 141.4E @ 165kph].
SATURDAY MORNING: Transitioning into an Extratropical Cyclone after passing over Chichijima...downgraded to Category 1 [8AM SEP 25: 32.1N 146.0E @ 140kph].
SUNDAY MORNING: Weakens further...becomes Extratropical while speeding up NE-ward across the open seas of the Pacific [8AM SEP 26: 42.4N 154.9E @ 100kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
13W still organizing, with most of its rain bands located south of the center. Strong gale-force winds with rains can be expected along the northern islands of the Marianas...from Saipan up to Agrihan today (click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis). 18-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 50 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the its rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 250 mm (heavy) near the center of 13W, especially along the southern bands. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TS 13W (UNNAMED)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1310.gif
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190
NM NORTH OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN RELOCATED SLIGHTLY TO THE
SOUTH BASED ON ANALYSIS OF RECENT MICROWAVE DATA AND MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY, INCLUDING A 202332Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A DVORAK T-NUMBER
VALUE OF 2.5 FROM PGTW. TROPICAL STORM 13W IS TRACKING SLOWLY WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. DEEP CONVECTION IS
PERSISTING ALONG A CONVERGENT BAND ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT IS
EXPANDING AS A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE NORTH
REORIENTS, ALLOWING OUTFLOW TO IMPROVE AND REDUCING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE...(more)
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 18 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS 13W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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