for Friday, 03 September 2010 [7:50 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Fri September 03 2010):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email & SMS advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TD 10W (HENRY).
10W (HENRY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W [HENRY]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 003
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Fri 03 September 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #05/SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
Tropical Depression 10W (HENRY) has entered the NE border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...moving NW-ward in the direction of Okinawa-Ryukyu Area. This cyclone will not directly affect the Philippines, but will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across Luzon & Visayas.
Residents and visitors along Okinawa, Ryukyus, Taiwan, Southern Japan & Korea should closely monitor the progress of 10W.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 48 hours)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Fri Sep 03 2010
Location of Center: 22.6º N Lat 133.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 735 km (397 nm) SE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 2: 1,000 km (540 nm) ESE of Ishigaki Island
Distance 3: 1,250 km (675 nm) ENE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Present Movement: NW @ 31 kph (17 kts)
Towards: Okinawa-Ryukyus Area
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 160 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Size (in Diameter): 185 km (100 nm) / Small
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Fri Sep 03
TD 10W is expected to track quickly NW-ward and intensify throughout the forecast. It will reach Tropical Storm strength later this afternoon and exit PAR tonight [2PM SEP 03: 24.1N 131.9E @ 65kph...2AM SEP 04: 25.5N 129.8E @ 75kph]. This system will pass over Okinawa Island tomorrow afternoon before moving towards the East China Sea [2PM SEP 04: 26.9N 128.0E @ 95kph...2AM SEP 05: 28.4N 126.7E @ 100kph].
Current Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 55 km/hr (30 kts) with higher gusts. The forecast path of this cyclone is very similar to Typhoon KOMPASU (GLENDA) which is now an Extratropical Cyclone off the Sea of Japan.
MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Reaching typhoon strength as it turns Northward while over the East China Sea [2AM SEP 06: 30.4N 126.0E @ 120kph].
TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Passing very close to Cheju Island...reaches peak strength [2AM SEP 07: 33.3N 125.6E @ 130kph]
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Moving into the western coast of Korea...downgraded to a Tropical Storm [2AM SEP 08: 36.8N 125.9E @ 110kph]
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed can be expected from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS
10W's circulation still organizingt. No hazards and effects from this depression are taking place as of this time. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 50 mm (light rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 160 mm (Heavy) near the center of 10W. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.
CURRENT SOUTHWEST MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with passing on-&-off heavy rains and thunderstorms can be expected along these following affected areas: LUZON including METRO MANILA, NORTHERN PALAWAN, CALAMIAN GROUP, MINDORO AND BICOL REGION. Light to moderate SW winds (not in excess of 35 kph) can be expected today.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TD 10W (UNNAMED)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1010.gif
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL, POORLY DEFINED CIRCULATION
WITH DEEP CONVECTION FLARING ON THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE CENTER.
A 021753Z AMSU-B IMAGE ALSO SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTION, BUT LOCATED
MORE OVER THE CENTER OF A WEAK, POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST TO THE EAST OF A
LARGE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) THAT IS STARTING TO
REFLECT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE TUTT IS PROVIDING SOUTHERLY SHEAR
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF TD 10W, AND THE SURFACE REFLECTION IS
ENHANCING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND COUNTERACTING THE NORTHERLY FLOW ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF TD 10W. AS THE TUTT MOVES TO THE WEST, THE
NEGATIVE EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE, AND THE SYSTEM WILL START
TO INTENSIFY AT A MORE RAPID RATE (AFTER 24 HOURS). AN APPROACHING
SMALLER TUTT FROM THE EAST MIGHT ALSO ENHANCE OUTFLOW AND ENCOURAGE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE 12 TO 24 HOUR PERIOD. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, AND
MAY SLOW NEAR TAU 72 AS IT RUNS INTO A WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE
RIDGE BEFORE BEING KICKED OUT BY A PASSING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH NEAR
TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT, WITH NOGAPS AND EGRR
BRINGING THE SYSTEM FURTHER WEST WHEN IT ENCOUNTERS THE EXTENSION OF
THE RIDGE. GFDN IS LOSING THE CIRCULATION EARLY IN THE MODEL RUN...(more)
RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TD 10W (HENRY)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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