for Thursday, 23 September 2010 [12:40 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday Sep 23 2010):
PAGASA already updated their local name roster for this year, 2010...MILENYO was replaced by MARIO...while REMING was replaced by RUBY. Meanwhile, T2K continues to issue 6-hrly web & email advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TY MALAKAS (13W).
MALAKAS (13W/1012) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 kph
TYPHOON MALAKAS [13W/1012]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 009
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Thu 23 September 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #012/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
MALAKAS (13W) rapidly intensified...becomes the 6th Typhoon of the 2010 Season...turning northwestward.
Residents and visitors along Iwo To and Chichijima should closely monitor the progress of MALAKAS.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 4 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS CURRENT MONSOON TROUGH (ITCZ) INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers, rains & thunderstorms can be expected along these following affected areas: CENTRAL & SOUTHERN LUZON, BICOL REGION, & NORTHERN VISAYAS. Light to moderate SE, East, or Variable winds (not in excess of 25 kph) can be expected today.
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Thu Sep 23 2010
Location of Center: 20.5º N Lat 141.3º E Lon {Relocated}
Distance 1: 480 km (260 nm) South of Iwo To
Distance 2: 750 km (405 nm) NW of Saipan, CNMI
Distance 3: 655 km (353 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 4: 2,010 km (1,085 nm) East of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 120 kph (65 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (80 kts)
Present Movement: NW @ 11 kph (06 kts)
Towards: Iwo To-Chichijima Area
24-hr Rain Amounts (near center): 500 mm (Very Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 740 km (400 nm) / Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 23 ft (7.0 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PhT Thu Sep 23
MALAKAS' circulation continues to improve and grow in size...with the development of a possible eye at the center. The system is expected to turn gradually northward within the next 24 hours before accelerating and recurving towards the NNE to NE-ward through 48 hours. It will become a Category 2 typhoon tomorrow (Friday) while passing very close to Iwo To and Chichijima [8AM SEP 24: 24.0N 140.9E @ 165kph...8PM SEP 24: 26.9N 141.8E @ 165kph]. By Saturday morning, MALAKAS is forecast to weaken as it transitions into an Extratropical Cyclone while moving northeastward [8AM SEP 25: 31.8N 144.4E @ 150kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have rapidly increased to near 120 km/hr (65 knots) with higher gusts...further strengthening is likely until tomorrow. Typhoon Force Winds extend outward up to 20 kilometers (10 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 185 kilometers (100 nautical miles).
SUNDAY MORNING: Becomes Extratropical as it moves faster NE-ward, across the NW Pacific...its intensity continues to weaken [8AM SEP 26: 42.2N 154.5E @ 140kph].
MONDAY MORNING: Passing south of the Pacific Russian Island of Nikol Skoye [8AM SEP 27: 50.7N 167.9E @ 100kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
MALAKAS' rainbands remain at sea and are not yet affecting any Pacific islands. Tropical Storm Conditions are forecast to reach Iwo To early tomorrow morning (Friday)...becoming Typhoon Conditions a few hours after sunrise. Chichijima, on the other hand, will also experience Tropical Storm Conditions before noon tomorrow...becoming Typhoon Conditions early in the evening (Friday) (click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis). 24-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 200 mm (light to heavy rain) can be expected along its outer and inner bands...with isolated amounts of up to 500 mm (very heavy) near the center of MALAKAS (Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TY MALAKAS (13W)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1310.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 96 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*TYPHOON (TY) 13W (MALAKAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM SOUTH
OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS AND HAS
INTENSIFIED BY 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED CENTRAL CONVECTION
OVER THE TIGHTLY WRAPPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
222113Z 37V SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS AND MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY AS WELL AS POSITION ESTIMATES FROM A 222351Z ITOP VORTEX
MESSAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW AND RJTD DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 55 TO 77 KNOTS, IN ADDITION TO THE VORTEX
MESSAGE REPORTING 69 KNOT WINDS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) TO THE NORTH HAS MOVED
FARTHER NORTHWARD ALLOWING FOR A DECREASE IN SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY, WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND OUTFLOW INTO A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST
REMAINS GOOD...(more)
>> MALAKAS, meaning: Strong; powerful. Name contributed by: Philippines.
RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TY MALAKAS (13W)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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