for Thursday, 23 September 2010 [6:48 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday Sep 20 2010):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web & email advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TS MALAKAS (13W).
MALAKAS (13W/1012) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 kph
TROPICAL STORM MALAKAS [13W/1012]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 008
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Thu 23 September 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #011/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
Tropical Storm MALAKAS (13W) gaining strength while maintaining its slow WNW track...remains in the middle of the Northwest Pacific, away from any populated land areas.
Residents and visitors along Iwo To and Chichijima should closely monitor the progress of MALAKAS.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 4 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS CURRENT MONSOON TROUGH (ITCZ) INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers, rains & thunderstorms can be expected along these following affected areas: CENTRAL & SOUTHERN LUZON, BICOL REGION, & NORTHERN VISAYAS. Light to moderate SE, East, or Variable winds (not in excess of 25 kph) can be expected today.
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Thu Sep 23 2010
Location of Center: 20.0º N Lat 141.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 535 km (290 nm) South of Iwo To
Distance 2: 730 km (395 nm) NW of Saipan, CNMI
Distance 3: 625 km (337 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 4: 1,990 km (1,075 nm) ESE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph (45 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph (55 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 11 kph (06 kts)
Towards: Iwo To-Chichijima Area
24-hr Rain Amounts (near center): 500 mm (Very Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 705 km (380 nm) / Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 20 ft (6.0 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-2 ft [0.3-0.6 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Thu Sep 23
MALAKAS' circulation has improved and expanded overnight as it moves slowly WNW. The system is expected to turn gradually northward within the next 24 hours before accelerating and recurving towards the NNE to NE-ward. It will pass close to Iwo To tomorrow morning (Friday)...and intensify into a Typhoon while passing very close to Chichijima late in the afternoon [2AM SEP 24: 23.2N 140.4E @ 110kph...2PM SEP 24: 26.4N 141.2E @ 140kph]. By early Saturday morning, MALAKAS should have reach its peak strength while continuing moving NE-ward across the open waters of the NW Pacific Basin [2AM SEP 25: 30.6N 143.7E @ 150kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 85 km/hr (45 knots) with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 150 kilometers (80 nautical miles) from the center.
SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Starts to weaken as it becomes an Extratropical Cyclone [2AM SEP 26: 40.5N 151.8E @ 140kph].
MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Approaching the Pacific Russian Islands of Nikol Skoye [2AM SEP 27: 50.0N 164.7E @ 95kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
MALAKAS' rainbands remain at sea and are not affecting any islands at this time. Tropical Storm Conditions are forecast to reach Iwo To and Chichijima Islands tomorrow morning (Friday) (click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis). 24-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 200 mm (light to heavy rain) can be expected along its outer and inner bands...with isolated amounts of up to 500 mm (very heavy) near the center of MALAKAS (Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TS MALAKAS (13W)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1310.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 96 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (MALAKAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM
SOUTH OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
INCREASED CENTRAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE TIGHTLY
WRAPPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 221613Z AMSU
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION,
WHICH IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED INFRARED AND AMSU IMAGERY. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) IS CAUSING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT, HIGHER
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND HINDERING POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. HOWEVER, EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND OUTFLOW
INTO A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST REMAINS GOOD. TS 13W IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE. A MID-LATITUDE, UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
THE YELLOW SEA, SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHWARD AND TRACK EASTWARD.
THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND ALLOW TS MALAKAS TO TURN POLEWARD. TS
13W WILL ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND BEGIN TO RECURVE INTO THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES AROUND TAU 36. THE SYSTEM WILL START TO INTERACT
WITH THE STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE NORTH BY TAU 48 AND
TRANSITION INTO A FULLY EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BY TAU 72. TS 13W IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVES INTO
THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
OF THE TROUGH, TS 13W SHOULD TRANSITION INTO AN INTENSE
EXTRATROPICAL LOW. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...(more)
>> MALAKAS, meaning: Strong; powerful. Name contributed by: Philippines.
RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS MALAKAS (13W)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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