for Monday, 20 September 2010 [7:27 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sun September 19 2010):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web & email advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TY FANAPI (INDAY).
FANAPI (INDAY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 140 kph
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
TYPHOON FANAPI [INDAY/12W/1011]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 016
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Mon 20 September 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #021/CWB Radar/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
Typhoon FANAPI (INDAY) slightly re-intensifies as it bears down the coast of Southeastern China. Landfall expected this morning along the southern part of Fujian Province.
Residents and visitors along Southern Fujian and Eastern Guangdong should closely monitor the progress of FANAPI.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 36 hours)*
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Mon Sep 20 2010
Location of Center: 23.7º N Lat 118.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 90 km (48 nm) South of Xiamen, China
Distance 2: 155 km (83 nm) ENE of Shantou, China
Distance 3: 245 km (132 nm) NW of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Distance 4: 345 km (187 nm) West of Hualien, Taiwan
Distance 5: 375 km (203 nm) WSW of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 6: 535 km (290 nm) NW of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 130 kph (70 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 160 kph (85 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 19 kph (10 kts)
Towards: Southeastern China
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 240 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 970 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 720 km (390 nm) / Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 24 ft (7.3 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Mon Sep 20
FANAPI will start to dissipate after making landfall over Southernmost part of the Fujian Province in SE China...will be just a tropical storm upon crossing Guangdong Province this afternoon...weakening into a depression by early tomorrow morning [2PM SEP 20: 23.7N 116.7E @ 100kph...2AM SEP 21: 23.8N 114.3E @ 55kph]. The typhoon will eventually dissipate into an area of low pressure while over Western Guangdong tomorrow afternoon [2PM SEP 21: 23.8N 112.2E @ 35kph].
Current Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 130 km/hr (70 kts) with higher gusts. FANAPI is a Category 1 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale. Typhoon Force Winds (>118 km/hr) extend outward up to 55 kilometers (30 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 185 kilometers (100 nm).
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS
FANAPI's decaying eyewall has started to affect the coastal areas of Southeastern China, especially along Eastern Guangdong and Southern Fujian. The inner and outer bands are spreading across whole of Southeastern China...Taiwan Strait...and Southwestern Taiwan. Tropical Storm Conditions are now affecting Southeastern China with Tropical Storm Force Winds...while Typhoon Conditions can be expected near the core of FANAPI or over areas in between Shantou and Xiamen Cities this morning. Improving weather conditions can be expected over Taiwan later this afternoon...and over Southeastern China tomorrow as the typhoon dissipates while moving inland across Guangdong Province. (click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis). 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands or over Taiwan Strait and the rest of Southeastern China...with isolated amounts of up to 240 mm (heavy) to the south of FANAPI's center or just along the coast of Eastern Guangdong (click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount). Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...are possible along the coastal areas of Eastern Guangdong and Southern Fujian today. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
Tropical Disturbance 90W (LPA/1007 MB) continues to consolidate while moving northwestward across the Western Pacific Ocean. Its center was located near lat 18.1N lon 147.5E...or about 380 km NNE of Saipan...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 35 kph near the center...moving NW @ 22 kph. The 48-hour Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential remains at 90% (High Chance).
External Links for TY FANAPI (INDAY)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1210.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 36 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*TYPHOON (TY) 12W (FANAPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM NORTHWEST OF
KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 191732Z PGTW SATELLITE
FIX AND A 191800Z TAIWAN RADAR FIX. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE
OF 70 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH PGTW AND RJTD DVORAK T-NUMBER
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 65 TO 77 KNOTS AND AN 1800Z WIND OBSERVATION
OF 65 KNOTS REPORTED BY THE NEARBY SHIP SAVANNAH EXPRESS. TY 12W HAS
INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WITH CONVECTION
DEEPENING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND STRONG ROTATION EVIDENT
ON A LOOP OF RECENT RADAR DATA FROM TAIWAN. THE TYPHOON IS TRACKING
WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSIVE STEERING RIDGE
AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD,
MAKING LANDFALL NEAR SHANTOU, CHINA, JUST PRIOR TO TAU 12. THE
CYCLONE MAY STILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY PRIOR TO LANDFALL UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF VERY GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. AFTER LANDFALL, THE
CYCLONE WILL STEADILY DISSIPATE TO BELOW THE WARNING THRESHOLD
INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS BY TAU 36...(more)
>> FANAPI, meaning: Small atoll islands; sandy islands. Name contributed by: Micronesia.
RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TY FANAPI (INDAY)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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