for Saturday, 25 September 2010 [7:22 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday Sep 23 2010):
PAGASA already updated their local name roster for this year, 2010...MILENYO was replaced by MARIO...while REMING was replaced by RUBY. Meanwhile, T2K continues to issue 6-hrly web & email advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TY MALAKAS (13W).
MALAKAS (13W/1012) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 160 kph
TYPHOON MALAKAS [13W/1012]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 014
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Sat 25 September 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #019/SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
Typhoon MALAKAS (13W) weakens as it moves very quickly northeastward...becoming Extratropical.
Boats and ships along the northern shipping lanes of the NW Pacific Ocean, south of Kuril Islands and Kamchatka Peninsula, should closely monitor the progress of MALAKAS.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 24 hours)*
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Sat Sep 25 2010
Location of Eye: 33.2º N Lat 143.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 460 km (248 nm) SE of Tokyo, Japan
Distance 2: 620 km (335 nm) SSE of Sendai, Japan
Distance 3: 695 km (375 nm) NNE of Chichi Jima
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 150 kph (80 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 185 kph (100 kts)
Present Movement: NNE @ 55 kph (30 kts)
Towards: NW Pacific Ocean
24-hr Rain Amounts (near center): 200 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 963 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 1,020 km (550 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 30 ft (9.1 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Sat Sep 25
MALAKAS has started transitioning into an Extratropical system while moving very quickly north-northeastward. Latest satellite imagery continues to show a large, ragged eye approximately 37 kilometers in diameter, with strong eyewall, cloud convection. This system is expected to reach Extratropical status while passing to the south of the Kuril Islands by early tomorrow morning (Sunday) [2PM SEP 25: 36.5N 145.9E @ 130kph...2AM SEP 26: 41.6N 150.5E @ 110kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 150 km/hr (80 knots) with higher gusts...further weakening is expected throughout the day. MALAKAS is a Category 1 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 55 kilometers (30 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 275 kilometers (150 nautical miles). MALAKAS is a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,020 kilometers (550 nautical miles) across.
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS
Typhoon Conditions w/ Typhoon Force Winds over Chichi Jima Island have gradually receded overnight...improved weather expected today. Meanwhile, light rains associated with the storm's westernmost outer bands can be expected along the east coast of Honshu in Japan (click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis). 24-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its outer and inner bands...with isolated amounts of up to 200 mm (heavy) near the center of MALAKAS (Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount).
CURRENT MONSOON TROUGH (ITCZ) INTENSITY: WEAK >> Sunny to mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers, rains & thunderstorms especially in the afternoon or evening can be expected along these following affected areas: CENTRAL & SOUTHERN LUZON, METRO MANILA, BICOL REGION, & VISAYAS. Light to moderate SE, East, to Variable winds (not in excess of 20 kph) can be expected today.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TY MALAKAS (13W)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1310.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 24 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*TYPHOON (TY) 13W (MALAKAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
28 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) IS
NOW WELL UNDERWAY IN THE UPPER LEVELS, WHILE THE LOW LEVELS MAINTAIN
CORE CONVECTION AND A CLEARLY DISCERNABLE 30 NM EYE. AN UPPER AIR
SOUNDING FROM CHICHI JIMA, JAPAN, REVEALS THAT STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLIES IN THE STORM'S SOUTHERN QUADRANT EXTEND THROUGHOUT
THE TROPOSPHERE WHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD SHIELD COUPLING WITH A VIGOROUS JET STREAM TO THE NORTH OF THE
STORM. TYPHOON 13W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN VIGOROUS CONVECTION AND
WINDS ABOVE TYPHOON STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS DUE TO GOOD
ORGANIZATION AT THE BOUNDARYLEVEL AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ALONG ITS TRACK. AS TYPHOON 13W CROSSES OVER THE KUROSHIO CURRENT AND
ENTERS COOLER WATER NEAR 35 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE, AND TRACKS UNDER
INCREASINGLY HOSTILE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, IT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
AND COMPLETE ETT BETWEEN TAU 12-24. HOWEVER, IT WILL MOVE UNDER A
DEEP AND NEGATIVELY TILTED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND IS EXPECTED TO RE-
INTENSIFY AS AN EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW AND MAINTAIN STORM FORCE SURFACE
WINDS...(more)
>> MALAKAS, meaning: Strong; powerful. Name contributed by: Philippines.
RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TY MALAKAS (13W)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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