for Sunday, 05 September 2010 [6:57 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Fri September 03 2010):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email & SMS advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TS MALOU (HENRY).
MALOU (HENRY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 75 kph
TROPICAL STORM MALOU [HENRY/10W/1009]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 009
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Sun 05 September 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #13/SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
MALOU (HENRY) remains a minimal Tropical Storm in the East China Sea...racing towards the north-northwest.
Residents and visitors along the Korean Peninsula should closely monitor the progress of MALOU.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 48 hours)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Sun Sep 05 2010
Location of Center: 28.4º N Lat 126.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 290 km (157 nm) NW of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 2: 370 km (200 nm) West of Naje, Japan
Distance 3: 540 km (290 nm) SE of Shanghai, China
Distance 4: 570 km (308 nm) SSW of Cheju Island
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (40 kts)
Present Movement: NNW @ 28 kph (15 kts)
Towards: East China Sea
6-hr Rain Amounts (off the eastern rainbands): 175 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 665 km (360 nm) / Avg/Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 16 ft (4.9 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1 feet [0.3 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Sun Sep 05
TS MALOU is expected to continue moving NNW to Northward within the next 24 to 48 hours...some strengthening is still likely tomorrow [2AM SEP 06: 31.1N 125.2E @ 85kph...2PM SEP 06: 33.0N 125.1E @ 95kph] . This system will slow down while passing west of Cheju Island and will start to lose strength as it approaches the West Coast of South Korea early Tuesday morning [2AM SEP 07: 34.5N 125.5E @ 85kph].
Current Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 65 km/hr (35 kts) with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-85 km/hr) extend outward up to 20 kilometers (10 nautical miles) from the center, mostly along the eastern quadtrant.
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Making landfall over South Korea, just south of Seoul...becoming Extratropical while moving NE-ward [2AM SEP 08: 36.8N 127.0E @ 65kph].
THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Off the East Coast of the Korean Peninsula (NE part of South Korea)...attains Extratropical status while moving ENE into the Sea of Japan [2AM SEP 09: 38.1N 129.2E @ 45kph]
FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Moving ENE across the central part of the Sea of Japan [2AM SEP 10: 38.9N 132.9E @ 45kph]
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed can be expected from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS
MALOU's circulation remains loose and slightly scattered while over the East China Sea. Strong winds associate with this system are located mainly along the eastern quadrant or up to 55 km outward from the center. No serious hazards and effects from this cyclone are taking place as of this time, except for rainfall, squalls and thunderstorms associated with the outer bands - spreading across Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands. These bands are forecast to reach Cheju Island and Western Kyushu (Japan) later today Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 50 mm (light rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 175 mm (Heavy) to the east of the center of MALOU or along the eastern quadrant. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.
CURRENT SOUTHWEST MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with passing on-&-off rains and thunderstorms can be expected along these following affected areas: WESTERN & NORTHERN LUZON. Light to moderate SW winds (not in excess of 35 kph) can be expected today. Improving weather conditions now occurring across most parts of the Philippines.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TS MALOU (HENRY)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1010.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED
DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. A 041723Z TRMM 89H MICROWAVE PASS SUPPORTS
THE CURRENT POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. A 041305Z ASCAT PASS, AS
WELL AS THE CONVECTIVE ASYMMETRY OF THE SYSTEM, INDICATE STRONGER
WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES OF 35 KNOTS AS WELL AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS SHOWING 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AT THE SYSTEM
CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS TS 10W IS IN A REGION OF
ENHANCED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH ITS PROXIMITY TO THE
DIFFLUENT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER TAIWAN. TS 10W IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WESTERN
EXTENSION OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE. TS MALOU IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36, THEN BEGIN
TO TURN POLEWARD AS AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ERODES THE
RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 36,
THEN WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW NEAR
TAU 48. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL SOUTH OF SEOUL,
SOUTH KOREA, AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE
BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST FAVORS A TRACK NORTH AND WEST OF MODEL
CONSENSUS, BASED ON UPPER AIR ANALYSIS OF THE STEERING RIDGE AND THE
PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST...(more)
>> MALOU, meaning: Agate. Name contributed by: Macao, China.
RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS MALOU (HENRY)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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