for Friday, 24 September 2010 [7:20 AM PhT]
<<<Typhoon2000.com Mobile >>>
Get the latest SMS Storm Alerts!
For more details: Text T2K HELP to
2800 (Globe/TM) | 216 (Smart/TNT) | 2288 (Sun)
*only P2.50 (Smart/Globe) / P2.00 (Sun) per msg received.
powered by: Synermaxx
Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday Sep 23 2010):
PAGASA already updated their local name roster for this year, 2010...MILENYO was replaced by MARIO...while REMING was replaced by RUBY. Meanwhile, T2K continues to issue 6-hrly web & email advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TY MALAKAS (13W).
MALAKAS (13W/1012) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 125 kph
TYPHOON MALAKAS [13W/1012]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 011
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Fri 24 September 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #015/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
MALAKAS (13W) regains Typhoon classification...approaching Iwo To and Chichijima Islands...Typhoon Conditions expected across the area today.
Residents and visitors along Iwo To and Chichijima should closely monitor the progress of MALAKAS.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS CURRENT MONSOON TROUGH (ITCZ) INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers, rains & thunderstorms especially in the afrernoon or evening can be expected along these following affected areas: CENTRAL & SOUTHERN LUZON, METRO MANILA, BICOL REGION, & VISAYAS. Light to moderate SE, East, to Variable winds (not in excess of 25 kph) can be expected today.
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Fri Sep 24 2010
Location of Eye: 23.6º N Lat 140.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 140 km (75 nm) SSW of Iwo To
Distance 2: 405 km (220 nm) SSW of Chichijima
Distance 3: 1,350 km (730 nm) ESE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 4: 1,975 km (1,065 nm) ENE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 140 kph (75 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 165 kph (90 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 22 kph (12 kts)
Towards: Iwo To-Chichijima Area
24-hr Rain Amounts (near center): 220 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 967 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 835 km (450 nm) / Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 29 ft (8.8 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Fri Sep 24
MALAKAS' has regained Typhoon status as it starts to accelerate northward. The system is expected to gradually intensify while turning NNE-ward...and will accelerate faster within the next 2 days. The core (eye and eyewall) of this system will pass over Iwo To and Chichijima Islands this morning until the afternoon [2PM SEP 24: 26.2N 141.7E @ 160kph...2AM SEP 25: 31.0N 143.5E @ 165kph]. MALAKAS will become Extratropical by early Sunday morning as it moves quickly NE-ward across the NW Pacific, just south of Kuril Islands [2AM SEP 26: 40.7N 151.4E @ 130kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have gradually increased to near 140 km/hr (75 knots) with higher gusts...continued strengthening is likely today. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 45 kilometers (25 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 285 kilometers (155 nautical miles). MALAKAS is a large-sized tropical cyclone with diameter of 835 kilometers (450 nautical miles) across.
MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Passing SSE of Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia...weakening [2AM SEP 27: 49.2N 163.6E @ 95kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
MALAKAS' northern inner bands spreading across Iwo To and Chichijima Islands...core expected to pass over these islands today. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds are continuing across Iwo To...becoming Typhoon Conditions w/ Typhoon Force Winds just before noon today. Chichijima, on the other hand, will also experience Tropical Storm Conditions before noon today...becoming Typhoon Conditions this afternoon (click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis). 24-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 110 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its outer and inner bands...with isolated amounts of up to 220 mm (heavy) near the center of MALAKAS (Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TY MALAKAS (13W)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1310.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 72 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*TYPHOON (TY) 13W (MALAKAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM
SOUTH OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
231616Z AMSRE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A BANDING EYE. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE PGTW AND RJTD FIX AS WELL AS AN ITOP VORTEX
MESSAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE VORTEX MESSAGE, ITOP
DROPSONDE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, AND DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND
RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES DECREASED SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHICH
HAS ALLOWED TY 13W TO INTENSIFY BY 10 KNOTS WITHIN THE PAST SIX
HOURS. POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A MID-LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
THE NORTHWEST HAS IMPROVED AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD. TY
13W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
POLEWARD OUTFLOW INCREASES INTO THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
BY TAU 24, TY 13W WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND BEGIN TO
INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. BY TAU 48, TY MALAKAS
SHOULD BECOME ABSORBED BY THE STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE NORTH.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, TY 13W IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO AN INTENSE EXTRATROPICAL LOW. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS...(more)
>> MALAKAS, meaning: Strong; powerful. Name contributed by: Philippines.
RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TY MALAKAS (13W)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
Copyright © 2010 Typhoon2000.com All Rights Reserved
No comments:
Post a Comment