for Sunday, 19 September 2010 [7:40 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sun September 19 2010):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email & SMS advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TY FANAPI (INDAY).
FANAPI (INDAY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 195 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 175 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 175 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 170 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 185 kph
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
TYPHOON FANAPI [INDAY/12W/1011]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 013
7:30 AM PhT (23:30 GMT) Sun 19 September 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #017/RadarFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
Powerful Typhoon FANAPI (INDAY) bears down the coast of Eastern Taiwan with almost 200 km/hr winds...Landfall expected near Hualien City in just a few hours.
Residents and visitors along Taiwan, Fujian and Eastern Guangdong should closely monitor the progress of FANAPI.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 days)*
Time/Date: 7:30 AM PhT Sun Sep 19 2010
Location of Eye: 23.8º N Lat 121.8º E Lon {RADAR FIX}
Distance 1: 30 km (16 nm) ESE of Hualien, Taiwan
Distance 2: 135 km (73 nm) SSE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 3: 205 km (110 nm) NE of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Distance 4: 255 km (137 nm) WSW of Ishigaki Island
Distance 5: 365 km (197 nm) North of Basco, Batanes
Distance 6: 385 km (208 nm) ESE of Xiamen, China
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 195 kph (105 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 240 kph (130 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 19 kph (10 kts)
Towards: Taiwan-SE China
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 150 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 944 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 3
Size (in Diameter): 610 km (330 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 28 ft (8.5 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 9-12 ft [2.7-3.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Sun Sep 19
FANAPI is expected to make landfall over or very near Hualien City this morning or between 8 to 9AM local time...and will cross the mountainous terrain of Central Taiwan, weakening the system to just Category 2 - as it approaches the western part of Taiwan [2PM SEP 19: 23.9N 120.8E @ 165kph]. The typhoon will continue losing strength over Taiwan Strait as it moves onshore over Eastern Guangdong-Southern Fujian Area by early tomorrow morning [2AM SEP 20: 23.9N 118.3E @ 140kph]...and will make its last landfall in between Shantou and Xiamen Cities. FANAPI will quicky weaken as it moves slowly across the northern part of Guangdong Province or to the north of Hong Kong tomorrow afternoon until early Tuesday morning [2PM SEP 20: 24.0N 115.7E @ 95kph...2AM SEP 21: 24.3N 113.3E @ 65kph].
Current Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 195 km/hr (105 kts) with higher gusts. FANAPI is a Category 3 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale. It should start losing strength soon as it encounters land interaction. Typhoon Force Winds (>118 km/hr) extend outward up to 65 kilometers (35 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 280 kilometers (150 nm).
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Just an area of low pressure over Southern China...dissipated [2AM SEP 22: 24.7N 109.9E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS
FANAPI continues to display an irregular 35-km Eye on radar and satellite imageries as it is surrounded by a ring of strong eyewall convection. The Western Eyewall is now very close to the coast of Eastern Taiwan, as it starts moving onshore. At 7AM this morning, Hualien Weather Station in Taiwan has already reported tropical storm force winds (80 kph) blowing from the North and gusting up to 170 kph...with pressure of 974.6 hPa. The inner and outer bands of this typhoon is now covering Taiwan and extends over the Taiwan Strait and Southeastern China. Tropical Storm Conditions are now occurring across Northern, Eastern and Central Taiwan...becoming Typhoon Conditions later this morning as the core of FANAPI approaches. Tropical Storm Conditions will start commencing late this afternoon across Taiwan Strait and along the coastal areas of Southeastern China later this afternoon or evening. The eastern coast of Southeastern China particularly areas between the cities of Shantou and Xiamen will begin to experience Typhoon Conditions early tomorrow morning (click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis). 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands or over Northern and Central Taiwan...with isolated amounts of up to 150 mm (heavy) near the center of FANAPI or over Eastern Taiwan (click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount). Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 9 to 12 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Eastern and Northern Taiwan today...and over the Western Taiwan, and the east coast of Southeastern China tonight. Extensive damage is likely on this type of storm surge.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
Tropical Disturbance 90W (LPA/1008 MB) has consolidated overnight and may become a Tropical Cyclone within a day or two. Located near lat 14.2N lon 152.1E...or about 695 km ESE of Saipan...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 35 kph near the center...moving WSW slowly. The 48-hour Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential is now at 60% (High Chance).
External Links for TY FANAPI (INDAY)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1210.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 72 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*TYPHOON (TY) 12W (FANAPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 105 NM SOUTHEAST OF
TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 181325Z TRMM
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A 30NM EYE WITH MULTIPLE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION, WHICH IS BASED ON AN EYE FIX AND A TAIWAN RADAR
FIX. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 90 TO 115 KNOTS. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN
THE WIND RADII STRUCTURE BASED ON A 181318Z ASCAT PASS. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW,
HOWEVER POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS SOMEWHAT HINDERED BY AN ANTICYCLONE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM CAUSING INCREASED NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. TY 12W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED OVER NORTHEASTERN CHINA. TY
FANAPI IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL OVER TAIWAN WITHIN THE NEXT
12 HOURS. AFTER TAU 24, TY 12W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AGAIN
OVER CHINA, WEAKEN RAPIDLY, AND DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY PACKED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS...(more)
>> FANAPI, meaning: Small atoll islands; sandy islands. Name contributed by: Micronesia.
RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TY FANAPI (INDAY)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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