for Monday, 06 September 2010 [8:01 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Fri September 03 2010):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email & SMS advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TS MALOU (HENRY).
MALOU (HENRY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 kph
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
TROPICAL STORM MALOU [HENRY/10W/1009]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 012
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Mon 06 September 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #17/SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
MALOU (HENRY) slightly gained strength as it nears the Korean resort Island of Cheju...rain bands affecting the area.
Residents and visitors along the Korean Peninsula should closely monitor the progress of MALOU.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 48 hours)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 4 days)*
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Mon Sep 06 2010
Location of Center: 32.2º N Lat 126.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 150 km (80 nm) SSW of Cheju Island
Distance 2: 355 km (190 nm) WSW of Sasebo, Japan
Distance 3: 430 km (232 nm) SW of Busan, S.Korea
Distance 4: 450 km (243 nm) ENE of Shanghai, China
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph (40 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 22 kph (12 kts)
Towards: Korean Peninsula
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 180 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 720 km (390 nm) / Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 21 ft (6.4 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1 feet [0.3 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Mon Sep 06
TS MALOU will begin tracking NNE within the next 24 hours...passing over Cheju Island later this afternoon [2PM SEP 06: 33.2N 126.3E @ 85kph]. The center will make landfall over the southern part of South Korea early tomorrow morning [2AM SEP 07: 34.9N 127.1E @ 75kph]. MALOU will become an Extratropical Cyclone while traversing South Korea tomorrow afternoon...and will be over the Sea of Japan early Wednesday morning [2PM SEP 07: 36.3N 128.7E @ 55kph...2AM SEP 08: 37.3N 131.2E @ 55kph].
Current Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are now near 75 km/hr (40 kts) with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-95 km/hr) extend outward up to 65 kilometers (35 nautical miles) from the center, especially along the NE and SE quadrants.
THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Approaching the northern coast of Honshu [2AM SEP 09: 38.3N 136.9E @ 45kph].
FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Over the NW Pacific Ocean, after crossing Northern Honshu (Japan) [2AM SEP 10: 38.4N 143.4E @ 45kph]
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed can be expected from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS
MALOU's circulation has improved overnight...Its rain bands currently spreading across Cheju Island...and will extend into South Korea later today. Strong winds associated with this system are located mainly along these rain bands, particularly to the east of the center. Tropical Storm Conditions expected to reach Cheju Island this afternoon...and over the SW Coast of South Korea late tonight. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 50 mm (light rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 180 mm (Heavy) near the center of MALOU. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TS MALOU (HENRY)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1010.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 96 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (MALOU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM
SOUTH OF CHEJU ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE (IR) IMAGERY CONTINUES
TO SHOW MULTIPLE LOW LEVEL VORTICES CYCLONICALLY ROTATING INTO THE
MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY, AS WELL AS A
051717Z TRMM 85 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS, AND A 061726Z AMSU 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE PASS, REVEAL A MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS BEING
SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON
THE LOW LEVEL CENTER EVIDENT IN THESE MICROWAVE IMAGES. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS
FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS ENHANCED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH
OF THE SYSTEM. TS 10W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN EXTENT OF A LOW-TO MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. TS
10W IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS CHEJU ISLAND AND INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY
DUE TO FAVORABLE OUTFLOW CONDITIONS. NEAR TAU 24, TS 10W WILL MAKE
LANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH KOREA AND WEAKEN AS IT BEGINS TO BE
ABSORBED INTO THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY. BY TAU 48, TS MALOU IS
FORECAST TO COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN AND NOGAPS
WHICH TRACK THE SYSTEM ERRONEOUSLY NORTHWESTWARD AND POLEWARD,
RESPECTIVELY, IN THE LATER TAUS. THIS FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH MODEL CONSENSUS...(more)
>> MALOU, meaning: Agate. Name contributed by: Macao, China.
RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS MALOU (HENRY)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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