for Wednesday, 01 September 2010 [6:15 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sun August 29 2010):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web & e-mail advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TS LIONROCK (FLORITA).
LIONROCK (FLORITA) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 105 kph
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 90 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
TROPICAL STORM LIONROCK [FLORITA/07W/1006]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 017
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Wed 01 September 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #21/CWB RADAR
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
LIONROCK (FLORITA) has regained its 100-km/hr strength as it shifted its track towards the West to WNW...now threatens Eastern Guangdong.
Residents and visitors along Southeastern and Southern China should closely monitor the progress of LIONROCK.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 2 days)*
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Wed Sep 01 2010
Location of Center [RADAR FIX]: 22.9º N Lat 118.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 145 km (78 nm) WNW of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Distance 2: 195 km (105 nm) SSE of Xiamen, China
Distance 3: 230 km (125 nm) ESE of Shantou, China
Distance 4: 490 km (265 nm) ENE of Hong Kong
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 100 kph (55 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 130 kph (70 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 15 kph (08 kts)
Towards: Eastern Guangdong
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 240 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 445 km (240 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 20 ft (6.0 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 feet [0-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Wed Sep 01
TS LIONROCK is expected to track West to WNW in the direction of Southern Fujian or Eastern Guangdong area throughout the forecast period. Some slight strengthening is likely as the storm moves closer to the coast of Southeastern China. The center will make landfall either over Southern Fujian or Eastern Guangdong by tomorrow morning [2AM SEP 02: 24.0N 118.5E @ 110kph]. It will traverse the rugged terrains of Southern Fujian or Eastern Guangdong by tomorrow afternoon and quickly dissipate [2PM SEP 02: 24.7N 117.2E @ 85kph...2PM SEP 03: 25.7N 114.4E @ 35kph].
Current Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are now near 100 km/hr (55 kts) with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 160 kilometers (85 nautical miles) from the center.
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed can be expected from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS
LIONROCK's circulation has improved somewhat during the past 6 hours, with the outer rainbands spreading across Taiwan, Southern Fujian, Eastern and Southeastern Guangdong. Tropical Storm Conditions continuing across the southwestern part of Taiwan...and is likely to reach the Eastern Guangdong and Southern Fujian area by early tomorrow morning. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the its rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 240 mm (heavy) near the center of LIONROCK. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.
CURRENT SOUTHWEST MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with passing on-&-off showers, rains & thunderstorms can be expected along these following affected areas: WESTERN SECTIONS OF LUZON including METRO MANILA, MINDORO, WESTERN BICOL, PARTS OF WESTERN VISAYAS-MINDANAO AND THE BATANES-CALAYAN-BABUYAN GROUP OF ISLANDS. Light to moderate SW winds (not in excess of 40 kph) can be expected today.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TS LIONROCK (FLORITA)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0710.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 48 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED CENTRAL CONVECTION
OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITHIN THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND A RADAR FIX FROM
TAIWAN. INTENSITY HAS INCREASED WITHIN THE PAST SIX HOURS BASED ON
THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. TS 07W IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE THROUGH AN AREA OF DECREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
IMPROVED DIVERGENCE ALOFT. TS 07W IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD
AS THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. ALSO, AN
UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM SHANTOU, CHINA IS INDICATING MID-LEVEL
EASTERLY STEERING FLOW. TS 07W WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW VWS.
BY TAU 24, TS LIONROCK WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER CHINA AND DISSIPATE
AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 48. THE MODELS SHOW SOME
SPREAD IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN WESTWARD. HOWEVER, THIS FORECAST
TRACK IS WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS BASED ON THE CURRENT MID-LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW OVER CHINA...(more)
>> LIONROCK, meaning: A famous peak in Hong Kong, overlooking Kowloon Bay. Name contributed by: Hong Kong.
RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS LIONROCK (FLORITA)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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