for Thursday, 02 September 2010 [12:25 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sun August 29 2010):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web & e-mail advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TS LIONROCK (FLORITA).
LIONROCK (FLORITA) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 75 kph
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
TROPICAL STORM LIONROCK [FLORITA/07W/1006]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 019
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Thu 02 September 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #24/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
LIONROCK (FLORITA) quickly losing strength as it moves across Eastern Guangdong...expected to dissipate within 24 hours.
Residents and visitors along Southeastern and Southern China should closely monitor the progress of LIONROCK.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 2 days)*
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT thu Sep 02 2010
Location of Center: 24.0º N Lat 116.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 70 km (38 nm) NNW of Shantou, China
Distance 2: 170 km (92 nm) WSW of Xiamen, China
Distance 3: 300 km (162 nm) ENE of Hong Kong
Distance 4: 420 km (227 nm) WNW of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph (40 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (55 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 17 kph (09 kts)
Towards: Guangdong
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 200 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 295 km (160 nm) / Small
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 20 ft (6.0 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 feet [0-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PhT Thu Sep 02
TS LIONROCK is expected to track West to WNW across the rugged terrains of Southern Jiangxi late today...dissipating rapidly overnight [8PM SEP 02: 24.7N 116.0E @ 65kph]. Complete dissipation of this system is forecast by tomorrow morning while over Hunan Province [8AM SEP 03: 25.2N 114.6E @ 35kph].
Current Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 75 km/hr (40 kts) with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-90 km/hr) extend outward up to 120 kilometers (65 nautical miles) from the center.
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed can be expected from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS
LIONROCK's circulation will continue to dissipate overland across the provinces of Guangdong, Fujian, and Hunan. Tropical Storm Conditions will continue today, but diminishing later across Southern Fujian and Eastern Guangdong. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the its rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 200 mm (heavy) near the center of LIONROCK. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.
CURRENT SOUTHWEST MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with passing on-&-off showers, rains & thunderstorms can be expected along these following affected areas: REST OF LUZON including METRO MANILA, MINDORO, WESTERN BICOL, PARTS OF WESTERN VISAYAS-MINDANAO AND THE BATANES-CALAYAN-BABUYAN GROUP OF ISLANDS. Light to moderate SW winds (not in excess of 40 kph) can be expected today.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TS LIONROCK (FLORITA)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0710.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 24 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT TS 07W HAS
MADE LANDFALL AT APPROXIMATELY 01/23Z. A 012237Z TRMM 85H IMAGE DEPICTS
TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE RADAR DATA AND MICROWAVE
IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS. TS 07W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
WESTWARD AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY TAU 24. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS THIS FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN).
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION...(more)
>> LIONROCK, meaning: A famous peak in Hong Kong, overlooking Kowloon Bay. Name contributed by: Hong Kong.
RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS LIONROCK (FLORITA)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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