for Wednesday, 22 September 2010 [7:11 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday Sep 20 2010):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web & email advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TS MALAKAS (13W).
MALAKAS (13W/1012) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 75 kph
TROPICAL STORM MALAKAS [13W/1012]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 007
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Wed 22 September 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #009/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
Tropical Storm MALAKAS (13W) still trying to organize as it moves slowly WNW.
Residents and visitors along Iwo To and Chichijima should closely monitor the progress of MALAKAS.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 4 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS CURRENT MONSOON TROUGH (ITCZ) INTENSITY: WEAK >> Sunny to mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers, rains & thunderstorms can be expected along these following affected areas: SOUTHERN LUZON, BICOL REGION, VISAYAS AND MINDANAO. Light to moderate SE, East, or NE winds (not in excess of 25 kph) can be expected today.
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Wed Sep 22 2010
Location of Center: 19.7º N Lat 142.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 575 km (310 nm) SSE of Iwo To
Distance 2: 625 km (337 nm) NW of Saipan, CNMI
Distance 3: 755 km (408 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 4: 2,110 km (1,140 nm) ESE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph (40 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 07 kph (04 kts)
Towards: Iwo To-Chichijima Area
24-hr Rain Amounts (near center): 450 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 610 km (330 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 16 ft (4.8 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-2 ft [0.3-0.6 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Wed Sep 22
MALAKAS is expected to move northwesterly within the next 24 hours [2PM SEP 23: 21.9N 140.5E @ 110kph]...and will turn north to north-northeast on Friday. MALAKAS will slowly intensify...becoming a typhoon while passing close to Iwo To on Friday morning [2AM SEP 24: 23.7N 140.5E @ 130kph]...and will be over Chichijima Island by late Friday afternoon or early evening [2PM SEP 24: 26.6N 141.5E @ 160kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 75 km/hr (40 knots) with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-95 km/hr) extend outward up to 110 kilometers (60 nautical miles) from the center.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Reaches peak strength while moving northeastward across the open waters of the Northwest Pacific...becoming Extratropical [2PM SEP 25: 35.0N 146.8E @ 160kph].
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Attains Extratropical status while along the waters south of Coastal Siberia, Russia [2PM SEP 26: 45.6N 157.6E @ 95kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
MALAKAS maintains a partially-developed circulation...where most of its rain bands are situated along the eastern and southern portions. Tropical Storm Force Winds are forecast to reach Iwo To and Chichijima Islands on Friday (click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis). 24-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 200 mm (light to heavy rain) can be expected along the its rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 450 mm (heavy) near the center of MALAKAS, especially along the southern inner bands. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TS MALAKAS (13W)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1310.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 96 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (MALAKAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM
SOUTH OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO HAVE A PARTIALLY-
EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
TIGHTLY-WRAPPED, SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM
CENTER. THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS STILL BEING DISPLACED
EQUATORWARD FROM THE LLCC DUE TO NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. MALAKAS IS TRACKING STEADILY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE, WHICH IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS A DEEPENING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE YELLOW SEA. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD AS WELL AS
FROM RECENT SATCON ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY BEING SUPPRESSED BY UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON ITS
NORTHERN FLANK, IT IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT,
WITH HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
ACCORDINGLY, TS 13W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY STEADILY OVER THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS, REACHING TYPHOON STRENGTH BY 23/12Z AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW
INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH WILL ALSO ACT TO WEAKEN THE
RIDGE, GIVING THE SYSTEM AN ALLEY TO RECURVE INTO THE MID-LATITUDES.
BY TAU 72, TS MALAKAS WILL START TO INTERACT WITH THE ENCROACHING
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BY TAU 96 THE SYSTEM WILL OCCLUDE AND COMPLETE
TRANSITION TO A STORM FORCE EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK INCLUDING THE AREA OF
RECURVATURE...(more)
>> MALAKAS, meaning: Strong; powerful. Name contributed by: Philippines.
RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS MALAKAS (13W)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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