for Saturday, 18 September 2010 [12:08 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Fri September 17 2010):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email & SMS advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TY FANAPI (INDAY).
FANAPI (INDAY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 175 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 180 kph
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
TYPHOON FANAPI [INDAY/12W/1011]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 011
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Sat 18 September 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #014/RadarFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
Typhoon FANAPI (INDAY) still heading west...aiming its fury at Taiwan. Outer and inner bands spreading across Yaeyama and Miyako Islands.
Residents and visitors along Yaeyema-Miyako Islands and particularly Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of FANAPI.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 4 days)*
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Sat Sep 18 2010
Location of Eye: 23.6º N Lat 125.6º E Lon {RADAR FIX}
Distance 1: 175 km (95 nm) SE of Ishigaki Island
Distance 2: 405 km (220 nm) SW of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 3: 435 km (235 nm) ESE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 4: 515 km (278 nm) NE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 195 kph (95 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 215 kph (115 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 13 kph (07 kts)
Towards: Miyako-Yaeyama-Taiwan Area
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 130 mm (Moderate)
Minimum Central Pressure: 952 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
Size (in Diameter): 665 km (360 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 25 ft (7.6 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 ft [1.8-2.6 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PhT Sat Sep 18
FANAPI's future track remains the same, it will generally continue moving west for the next two days. Its strength will reach 185 km/hr (Category 3) later tonight as it passes very close to Ishigaki Island [8PM SEP 18: 23.7N 124.4E @ 185kph]. The core of FANAPI will be approaching the coast of Eastern Taiwan tomorrow morning, with some slight weakening as land interaction begins [8AM SEP 19: 23.9N 122.2E @ 175kph]. The eye is forecast to make landfall in the vicinity of Hualien, Taiwan before noontime tomorrow. Its overall structure will begin to deteriorate as the core traverses the mountains of Central Taiwan by tomorrow afternoon. It will just be a minimal typhoon upon reaching the west coast of Taiwan or off Taiwan Strait by tomorrow evening [8PM SEP 19: 23.9N 120.1E @ 120kph]. FANAPI will eventually weaken into a tropical storm as it makes its final landfall over the coast of Fujian Province, China on Monday morning [8AM SEP 20: 24.3N 117.9E @ 95kph].
Current Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are now near 175 km/hr (95 kts) with higher gusts. FANAPI remains a Category 2 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale...and should become a Category 3 Typhoon before it makes landfall. Typhoon Force Winds (>118 km/hr) extend outward up to 55 kilometers (30 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 215 kilometers (115 nm).
TUESDAY MORNING: Dissipating quickly overland, north of Hong Kong...just a depression [8AM SEP 21: 25.2N 114.1E @ 55kph].
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Dissipated over South-Central China [8AM SEP 22: 26.2N 111.1E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS
FANAPI is now exhibiting excellent radial structure with a ragged-round eye, surrounded by a ring of intense eyewall. Its outer bands continues to spread across Miyako and Yaeyama Islands. Tropical Storm Conditions are expected to arrive across the islands of Miyako and Yaeyama around noontime or this afternoon. On the other hand, Tropical Storm Conditions will start commencing across Eastern Taiwan early tomorrow morning, spreading over the rest of Taiwan before noon tomorrow. The eastern coast of Taiwan especially along the Hualien City Area will begin to experience Typhoon Conditions before noon tomorrow (click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis). 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 130 mm (moderate) near the center of FANAPI (click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount).
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT I.T.C.Z. INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: BICOL REGION, VISAYAS AND PALAWAN. Light SW, SE to variable winds (not in excess of 25 kph) can be expected over these areas today.
Tropical Disturbance 90W (LPA/1008 MB) has been seen on satellite imageries, developing to the east of the Marianas. Located near lat 14.0N lon 156.4E...or about 1,255 km East of Guam...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph near the center...moving WSW slowly. The 48-hour Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential is at 40% (Medium Chance).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TY FANAPI (INDAY)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1210.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 96 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*TYPHOON (TY) 12W (FANAPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A 20
NM EYE AND A 172216Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS MULTIPLE
CONVECTIVE BANDS ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON AN EYE FIX. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE 172301Z AND 180006Z VORTEX DATA MESSAGES
INDICATING SURFACE WIND SPEED ESTIMATES OF 93 AND 95 KNOTS. THERE IS
ALSO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND RADII STRUCTURE, WHICH WAS BASED ON
DOTSTAR DROPSONDE OBSERVATIONS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
INCREASED NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY, WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND DECREASING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES FARTHER
NORTHEASTWARD. TY 12W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
NORTH...(more)
>> FANAPI, meaning: Small atoll islands; sandy islands. Name contributed by: Micronesia.
RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
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LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TY FANAPI (INDAY)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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