Friday, September 17, 2010

Typhoon FANAPI [INDAY] - Update #08

 


for Friday, 17 September 2010 [12:05 PM PhT]


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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Fri September 17 2010):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email & SMS advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TY FANAPI (INDAY).


FANAPI (INDAY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 125 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 140 kph

TYPHOON FANAPI [INDAY/12W/1011]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 008

12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Fri 17 September 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #010/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)

Typhoon
FANAPI (INDAY) continues picking up steam while over the northernmost portion of the Philippine Sea...creeping northward during the past 6 hours.

Residents and visitors along Batanes, Okinawa-Ryukyus-Yaeyema Islands and Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of FANAPI.

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Fri Sep 17 2010
Location of Eye: 22.6º N Lat 128.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 435 km (235 nm) South of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 2: 450 km (243 nm) ESE of Ishigaki Island
Distance 3: 690 km (373 nm) ENE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 4: 720 km (390 nm) ESE of Taipei, Taiwan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 140 kph (75 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 165 kph (90 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 07 kph (04 kts)
Towards: Ishigaki-Miyako-Taiwan
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 220 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 967 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 555 km (300 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 19 ft (5.7 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.5 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PhT Fri Sep 17

ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 2 days)*

FANAPI is expected to continue intensifying and move westward, as the strong high pressure area off the East China Sea builds. It will reach Category 2 tomorrow morning as it moves across Yaeyama and Miyako Islands [8AM SEP 18: 23.6N 126.2E @ 165kph]. By Sunday morning, FANAPI will off the east coast of Taiwan [8AM SEP 19: 23.9N 122.6E @ 165kph]...and will make landfall near Hualien City Sunday afternoon before crossing Central Taiwan.

Current Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 140 km/hr (75 kts) with higher gusts. FANAPI remains a Category 1 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale. More strengthening can be expected during the day...and could attain Category 2 before the center reaches Taiwan's East Coast. Typhoon Force Winds (>118 km/hr) extend outward up to 45 kilometers (25 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 185 kilometers (100 nm).

EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*

MONDAY MORNING:  Downgraded to a tropical storm while off the Southeastern coast of China...prepares to make its final landfall [8AM SEP 20: 24.2N 118.6E @ 110kph].
TUESDAY MORNING:  Moving overland near the Fujian-Guangdong border...just a depression [8AM SEP 21: 25.7N 114.9E @ 55kph].
WEDNESDAY MORNING:  Dissipated over the mountains of mainland China [8AM SEP 22: 27.8N 112.4E @ 30kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS

FANAPI's compact circulation remains at sea...a developed cloud-filled eye can already be seen on satellite imagery. The advancing outer bands are expected to reach Yaeyama and Miyako Islands later this evening...and over Taiwan by Saturday evening. Tropical Storm Conditions are expected to arrive over Ishigaki tomorrow evening...and over the northeastern portions of Taiwan beginning Sunday morning (click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis). 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 75 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 220 mm (Heavy) near the center of FANAPI (click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount).

CURRENT I.T.C.Z. INTENSITY: WEAK >> Sunny to cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms especially in the afternoon or evening can be expected along the following affected areas: PALAWAN, AND VISAYAS. Light SE, North to variable winds (not in excess of 25 kph) can be expected over these areas today.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!



External Links for TY FANAPI (INDAY)


View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis

JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1210.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
       


JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) FRI 17 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 22.6N 128.2E.
*TYPHOON (TY) 12W (FANAPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF  TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER CHINA HAS
BUILT RAPIDLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY, CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO TURN MORE
NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION
BASED ON ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A HIGH-
RESOLUTION 162228Z MICROWAVE IMAGE. TY 12W HAS ALSO INTENSIFIED BY
20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
INTO THE PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY AND
AVAILABLE MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE WELL CONSOLIDATED CONVECTION AND
THE BEGINNING STAGES OF AN EYE. THEREFORE, THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF
75 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE STRONG CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AND SUPPORTED
BY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM KNES AND RJTD OF 4.5 AND PGTW OF 4.0.
CURRENTLY, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES SHOW THAT THE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW HAS STARTED TO WANE AS THE TROUGH HAS LIFTED TO THE
NORTHEAST AND THE SYSTEM IS PASSING OVER AN AREA OF LOWER OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT.
..(more)

>> FANAPI, meaning: Small atoll islands; sandy islandsName contributed by: Micronesia.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART
:


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RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART
:


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RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE
:


> Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


> Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
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LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP)
 



> Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
 
NOTE:
 
  * - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

   
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
   
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TY FANAPI (INDAY)...go visit our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
   
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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