for Thursday, 16 September 2010 [11:48 AM PhT]
<<<Typhoon2000.com Mobile >>>
Get the latest 6-hrly SMS Storm Alerts on INDAY!
For more details: Text T2K HELP to
2800 (Globe/TM) | 216 (Smart/TNT) | 2288 (Sun)
*only P2.50 (Smart/Globe) / P2.00 (Sun) per msg received.
powered by: Synermaxx
Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thu September 16 2010):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email & SMS advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TS FANAPI (INDAY).
FANAPI (INDAY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 kph
TROPICAL STORM FANAPI [INDAY/12W/1011]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 005
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Thu 16 September 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #006/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
FANAPI (INDAY) gaining more strength as it drifts slowly northeastward...a turn towards the west is forecast beginning tomorrow...remains a threat to Taiwan.
Residents and visitors along Batanes, Okinawa-Ryukyus-Yaeyema Islands and Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of FANAPI.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT thu Sep 16 2010
Location of Center: 21.6º N Lat 128.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 520 km (280 nm) SE of Ishigaki Island
Distance 2: 555 km (300 nm) South of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 3: 655 km (355 nm) ENE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 4: 770 km (415 nm) SE of Taipei, Taiwan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 100 kph (55 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 130 kph (70 kts)
Present Movement: NNE @ 07 kph (04 kts)
Towards: Ishigaki-Taiwan Area
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 200 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 465 km (250 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 14 ft (4.2 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PhT Thu Sep 16
FANAPI is expected to become a typhoon later this afternoon or evening, and slowly move northward within the next 24 hours [8AM SEP 17: 22.5N 127.8E @ 140kph]. It will then take a sharp WNW to westerly turn with increasing intensity & forward speed in the direction of Yaeyama Island Chain and Taiwan on Saturday morning [8AM SEP 18: 23.5N 125.8E @ 150kph].
Current Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased further to near 100 km/hr (55 kts) with higher gusts. FANAPI should continue to gain strength while over the warm waters of the Northernmost Philippine Sea. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 110 kilometers (60 nautical miles) from the center.
SUNDAY MORNING: Off the east coast of Taiwan...weakens slightly...should cross Central Taiwan late Sunday afternoon through the evening [8AM SEP 19: 23.9N 122.5E @ 140kph].
MONDAY MORNING: Off Taiwan Strait as a weakened Tropical Storm...should make landfall off Southern Fujian (SE China) Monday afternoon [8AM SEP 20: 24.0N 118.9E @ 100kph].
TUESDAY MORNING: Inland over Southern Fujian...just barely a Tropical Depression...dissipating quickly [8AM SEP 21: 25.8N 115.5E @ 45kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS
FANAPI's circulation still somewhat consolidating with less convective rain-clouds along the northwestern side. This system is not yet affecting any islands or coastal areas at this time. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 200 mm (Heavy) near the center of FANAPI. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.
CURRENT I.T.C.Z. INTENSITY: WEAK >> Sunny to cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms especially in the afternoon or evening can be expected along the following affected areas: METRO MANILA, CENTRAL & SOUTHERN LUZON, PALAWAN, AND VISAYAS. Light SE, North to variable winds (not in excess of 25 kph) can be expected over these areas today.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TS FANAPI (INDAY)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1210.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (FANAPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM
SOUTH OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS AFTER PREVIOUSLY TRACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD. A MID-LATITUDE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING OVER KYUSHU HAS WEAKENED THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, CREATING A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND ENABLING
TS FANAPI TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE
SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH AN
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SYSTEM CENTER, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND
HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AT THE SAME TIME, ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 152241Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOW CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION AS WELL AS VIGOROUS CONVECTION IN THE
EASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE. DUE TO STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
INTO A TUTT CELL TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THE INTERACTION WITH THE
TROUGH (WHICH IS STARTING TO ENHANCE POLEWARD OUTFLOW), THE SYSTEM
HAS INTENSIFIED BY 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE ON VISUAL AND MICROWAVE
IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW, KNES, AND PGTW OF 55 KNOTS AS WELL AS FROM DROPSONDES DEPLOYED
BY WC-130 AIRCRAFT CONDUCTING SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH. ..(more)
>> FANAPI, meaning: Small atoll islands; sandy islands. Name contributed by: Micronesia.
RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS FANAPI (INDAY)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
Copyright © 2010 Typhoon2000.com All Rights Reserved
No comments:
Post a Comment