for Saturday, 25 September 2010 [12:30 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday Sep 25 2010):
Ending the 6-hrly web & email advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TY MALAKAS (13W).
MALAKAS (13W/1012) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 160 kph
TYPHOON MALAKAS [13W/1012]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 015 **FINAL**
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Sat 25 September 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #020/SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
MALAKAS (13W) is about to lose tropical characteristics as it maintains its fast NNE track across the NW Pacific...near Extratropical status.
This is the Final Advisory on MALAKAS.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 24 hours)*
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Sat Sep 25 2010
Location of Center: 36.4º N Lat 145.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 420 km (227 nm) SE of Sendai, Japan
Distance 2: 485 km (262 nm) ENE of Tokyo, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 140 kph (75 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 165 kph (90 kts)
Present Movement: NNE @ 70 kph (40 kts)
Towards: NW Pacific Ocean
24-hr Rain Amounts (near center): 200 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 967 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 1,350 km (730 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 33 ft (10.0 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
Wunder Final TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PhT Sat Sep 25
MALAKAS is expected to become extratropical later tonight as it moves south of the Kuril Islands. This system is expected to pass to the south of Kamchatka Peninsula by tomorrow morning (Sunday) [8PM SEP 25: 39.5N 148.4E @ 110kph...8AM SEP 26: 44.2N 153.6E @ 100kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 140 km/hr (75 knots) with higher gusts...further weakening is expected throughout the day. MALAKAS remains a Category 1 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 65 kilometers (35 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 295 kilometers (160 nautical miles). MALAKAS is a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,350 kilometers (730 nautical miles) across.
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS
MALAKAS is no longer affecting any major islands or coastal areas as it transforms into an baroclinic system (click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis). 24-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its outer and inner bands...with isolated amounts of up to 200 mm (heavy) near the center of MALAKAS (Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount).
CURRENT MONSOON TROUGH (ITCZ) INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers, rains & thunderstorms especially in the afternoon or evening can be expected along these following affected areas: CENTRAL & SOUTHERN LUZON, METRO MANILA, BICOL REGION, & VISAYAS. Light to moderate SE, East, NE to Variable winds (not in excess of 20 kph) can be expected today.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TY MALAKAS (13W)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1310.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 24 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*TYPHOON (TY) 13W (MALAKAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 32
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. POSITION IS BASED ON VISUAL IMAGERY
AND A 242334Z ASCAT IMAGE. THE WINDFIELD INDICATED BY THE ASCAT
IMAGE VERIFIES A DRAMATIC SHIFT IN THE WINDFIELD AHEAD OF THE STORM
WHICH SHOWS A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO TAKE
ON FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS ON BOTH SIDES AS COOLER DRIER AIR IS
SPILLING OVER HONSHU AND FEEDING INTO THE WESTERN QUADRANT OF THE
SYSTEM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 242239Z SSMIS
IMAGE ALSO CONFIRM THAT THE SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY UNDERGOING EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION. EYE-WALL COLLAPSE IS NOW EVIDENT AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE SYSTEM HAVE COUPLED
WITH THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW. TY MALAKAS' UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER AND LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAVE NOW DE-COUPLED. DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM IS SHEARING TO THE NORTHEAST
AND IS NEARLY COMPLETELY GONE OVER THE EQUATORWARD QUADRANTS OF THE
SYSTEM. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT IN PROJECTING
THE STORM TO MOVE RAPIDLY INTO A BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM
NORTHERN HONSHU INTO THE WESTERN PACIFIC, WHERE IT WILL BECOME A
STORM FORCE MID-LATITUDE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY TAU 12. THE FORECAST
IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION...(more)
>> MALAKAS, meaning: Strong; powerful. Name contributed by: Philippines.
RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TY MALAKAS (13W)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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