for Friday, 10 June 2011 [5:15 PM PhT]
<<<Typhoon2000.com Mobile >>>
Get the latest 6-hrly SMS Storm Alerts on DODONG!
For more details: Text T2K TYPHOON to
2800 (Globe/TM) | 216 (Smart/TNT) | 2288 (Sun)
*Only P2.50 (Smart/Globe) / P2.00 (Sun) per msg received.
Click here on how to use this service (in PDF file)
Powered by: Synermaxx Corporation
Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday June 10 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on TS SARIKA (DODONG). The SMS Updates has ended.
SARIKA (DODONG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 70 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM SARIKA [DODONG/05W/1103]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 004
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Fri 10 June 2011
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #006/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm SARIKA (DODONG) continues to track NNW towards the Fujian Province of China. Landfall expected just to the east of Shantou City by tomorrow morning.
Residents and visitors along Southern & SE China should closely monitor the progress of SARIKA (DODONG).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Fri June 10 2011
Location of Center: 20.8º N Lat 117.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 290 km (157 nm) South of Shantou City
Distance 2: 330 km (178 nm) ESE of Hong Kong
Distance 3: 510 km (275 nm) WNW of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Present Movement: NNW @ 22 kph (12 kts)
Towards: Fujian Province
CPA [ETA] to Shantou: Tomorrow Morning Jun 11 [6-8AM HKT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 330 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): >30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 335 km (180 nm) / Small-Avg
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 ft (3.0 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 PM HKT Fri June 10
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 36 hours)*
SARIKA (DODONG) is expected to turn more Northward to NNE-ward across the South China Sea for the next 2 days...and will make landfall along Southeastern China or off Fujian Province tomorrow morning, Saturday June 11, and dissipate over land.
TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (SAT): Approaching the coast of Fujian Province (China)...about 115 km South of Shantou City, China [2AM JUN 11: 22.4N 116.9E @ 75kph]. TOMORROW AFTERNOON (SAT): Makes landfall over Fujian Province, downgraded into a Depression [2PM JUN 11: 25.0N 117.3E @ 55kph]. SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Dissipated over Fujian Province, China [2AM JUN 12: 27.4N 118.4E @ 35kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 65 km/hr (35 knots) with higher gusts. SARIKA (DODONG) is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 30 kilometers (15 nautical miles) from the center. SARIKA is an average/small-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 335 kilometers (180 nautical miles).
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
SARIKA's CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy with widespread moderate to heavy rains w/ squalls & thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: Southern part of the SOUTH CHINA SEA. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow. FUJIAN, CHINA: about 30 km East of Shantou City or 320 km ENE of Hong Kong [ETA: between 6:00-8:00 AM Tomorrow].
SARIKA's (DODONG) circulation has become slightly disorganized with its low-level circulation center (LLCC) moving ahead of its thick-rain convective circulation while still over the South China Sea. Below are the summary of the typhoon's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: INNER RAINBANDS - over water (South China Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-85 kph) can be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (South China Sea)...but will reach the Southeastern Coast of China (Fujian-Eastern Guangdong Area) later tonight. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) can be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 330 mm (high) near the center of SARIKA (DODONG). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) FRI 10 JUNE POSITION: 20.0N 117.1E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (SARIKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH THE CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
(TUTT) LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IS CAUSING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
AND MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO 25 KNOTS).
THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC IN MSI. THE INTENSITY IS HIGHER THAN PGTW,
KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES DUE TO A 100224Z ASCAT PASS, WHICH
SHOWS A STRONG BAND OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE LLCC WITH WEAKER 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY. TS 05W IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE. TS 05W SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL EAST OF
HONG KONG, CHINA AFTER TAU 12. AS THE TUTT CELL TO THE NORTH FILLS,
FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, MODERATE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, AND
EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY
SLIGHTLY BEFORE LAND INTERACTION CAUSES THE SYSTEM TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN
AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 36. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...(more)
>> SARIKA, meaning: A singing bird. Name contributed by:Cambodia.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT JTWC / WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART: 
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS SARIKA (DODONG)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
Copyright © 2011 Typhoon2000.com All Rights Reserved
No comments:
Post a Comment