for Thursday, 23 June 2011 [7:45 AM PhT]
<<<Typhoon2000.com Mobile >>>
Get the latest 6-hrly SMS Storm Alerts on FALCON!
For more details: Text T2K TYPHOON to
2800 (Globe/TM) | 216 (Smart/TNT) | 2288 (Sun)
*Only P2.50 (Smart/Globe) / P2.00 (Sun) per msg received.
Click here on how to use this service (in PDF file)
Powered by: Synermaxx Corporation
Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wednesday June 22 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on TS HAIMA (EGAY).
HAIMA (EGAY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 80 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAIMA [EGAY/06W/1104]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 022
7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Thu 23 June 2011
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #025/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Depression HAIMA (EGAY) has slightly intensified as it drifts NW along the Southern Coast of China (West Guangdong).
Residents and visitors along Hainan Island, Southern & Southwestern China should closely monitor the progress of HAIMA (EGAY).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 7:00 AM PhT Thu June 23 2011
Location of Center: 20.9º N Lat 112.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 170 km (92 nm) ESE of Zhanjiang, China
Distance 2: 205 km (110 nm) ENE of Haikou, Hainan
Distance 3: 210 km (113 nm) SW of Macau
Distance 4: 265 km (143 nm) SW of Hong Kong
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 60 kph (33 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 70 kph (38 kts)
Present Movement: NW @ 09 kph (05 kts)
Towards: Western Guangdong
12-18hr Rainfall Accum (SW of center): 200 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 25-30 mm/hr (Mod)
Minimum Central Pressure: 998 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Size (in Diameter): 555 km (300 nm) / Average
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 9 ft (2.7 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 AM HKT Thu June 23
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 24 hours)*
HAIMA (EGAY) is expected to remain a weak depression throughout the 1-day forecast...will return to its usual WNW path. This system shall make landfall over Western Guangdong this afternoon.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 60 km/hr (33 knots) with higher gusts. 06W (EGAY) is a Tropical Depression (TD) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale.
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy with widespread moderate to heavy on-&-off rains w/ squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
HAIMA's (EGAY) circulation continues to improve while over the South China Sea. Most of its intense raincloud convection remains to the south and southwest of the low-level circulation center (LLCC). Below are the summary of the depression's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: 
RAINBANDS - spreading and affecting Gunagdong Province, Gulf of Tonkin & Hainan Island Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) can be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 200 mm (high) south and southwest from the center of HAIMA (EGAY). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) THU 23 JUNE POSITION: 21.1N 112.7E.
*TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 06W (HAIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM
SOUTHWWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE BEST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE
EAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING BASED ON NEW MICROWAVE SATELLITE
DATA. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 221732Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX
AND A 221359Z AMSU IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KNOTS
IS CONSISTENT WITH A DVORAK T-NUMBER ESTIMATE OF 2.0 FROM PGTW.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RECENT FLARING CONVECTION
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH CURVED BANDING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF
THE LLCC AND MULTIPLE SMALL, EMBEDDED VORTICES. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
IS BEGINNING TO DISCONNECT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE
NORTHEAST WHILE THE EQUATORWARD CHANNEL REMAINS INTACT. TD 06W IS IN
AN AREA OF MODERATE (20 KNOTS) NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. TD 06W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE
LANDFALL SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 24 AND CONTINUE TO TURN WESTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TAU 36 AND TAU 48
FORECAST POSITIONS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THIS WARNING BECAUSE PART OF
THE CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN OVER WATER DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD
AND CONSEQUENTLY DELAY DISSIPATION UNTIL 48...(more)
>> HAIMA, meaning: A sea horse. Name contributed by: China.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT JTWC / WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART: 
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 12-18 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TD HAIMA (EGAY)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
Copyright © 2011 Typhoon2000.com All Rights Reserved
No comments:
Post a Comment