for Sunday, 26 June 2011 [7:45 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday June 25 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on TS MEARI (FALCON).
MEARI (FALCON) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM MEARI [FALCON/07W/1105]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 021
5:00 PM PhT (09:00 GMT) Sun 26 June 2011
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #019/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm MEARI (FALCON) has changed course towards the NW...now off the eastern coast of Shandong Province (China) as it continues to weaken. Meanwhile, Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 90W has been losing organization while over the South China Sea (aka. West Philippine Sea), west of Ilocos Sur (see TC WATCH below for more details). This LPA will continue to enhance the SW Monsoon across the western sections of Northern & Central Luzon.
Residents and visitors along the Korean Peninsula should closely monitor the progress of MEARI (FALCON).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sun June 26 2011
Location of Center: 37.3º N Lat 122.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 250 km (135 nm) ENE of Qingdao, China
Distance 2: 330 km (178 nm) WSW of Pyongyang, N.Korea
Distance 3: 390 km (210 nm) West of Seoul, S.Korea
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Present Movement: NW @ 39 kph (21 kts)
Towards: Liaoning Province
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 110 mm (Med)
Rainrate (near center): 20 mm/hr (Mod)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 1,130 km (610 nm) / Very Large
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 20 ft (6.0 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 ft [0.0-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 PM PhT Sun June 26
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 1 day)*
MEARI (FALCON) is expected to recurve towards the NNE to NE-ward across Liaoning Province and dissipate. Below is the summary of the 1-day forecast for MEARI (FALCON). 
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING (MON): Downgraded to a Tropical Depression (TD) while along the coast of Liaoning Province...about 285 km West of Pyongyang, North Korea [2AM JUN 27: 39.2N 122.5E @ 45kph]. TOMORROW AFTERNOON (MON): Dissipated over the rugger terrain of Liaoning Province...about 280 km NNW of Pyongyang, North Korea [2PM JUN 27: 41.3N 124.4E @ 35kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 65 km/hr (35 knots) with higher gusts. MEARI (FALCON) is a Tropical Storm (STS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Further weakening on this system is expected today. MEARI is a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,130 kilometers (610 nautical miles) across.
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy with occasional to widespread moderate to heavy rains w/ squalls & thunderstorms will continue to prevail along the following affected areas: WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LUZON Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 55 kph) will blow.
MEARI's (FALCON) very large circulation continues to dominate the Yellow, East China & Japan Seas and the Korean Peninsula including Northern China. Below are the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: INNER RAINBANDS (with a developing CDO) - spreading and affecting Eastern Coastal Areas of Shandong Province. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-85 kph) can be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading and affecting Shandong & Liaoning Provinces, North & South Korea, East China Sea and the Yellow Sea.. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) can be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 12-18HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 25 mm (low to medium rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 110 mm (medium) near the center of MEARI (FALCON). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Tropical Disturbance 90W (LPA/1009 MB) almost stationary west of Ilocos Provinces (off the West Philippine Sea/South China Sea) and has become disorganized. Its possible center was located near lat 17.4N lon 117.6E...about 330 km WSW of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte, PH...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph near the center. The 24-Hr. Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential on this system remains @ 40% [Medium]. View the latest satellite flash loop on this disturbance.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) SUN 26 JUNE POSITION: 36.7N 122.8E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS)07W (MEARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF SEOUL, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED AND INTACT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER BUT VOID OF CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 35-KT
DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW AND KNES AND FROM NEARBY SHIP AND LAND
OBSERVATIONS. TS O7W HAS DEFLECTED TO THE NORTHWEST AS ITS VERTICAL
STRUCTURE ERODED AND A LOWER REFLECTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE SOUTHEAST ASSUMED STEERING. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE
NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE STEERING RIDGE AND RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. IT WILL THEN MAKE LANDFALL AND DISSIPATE
BEFORE TAU 24. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN LOOSE
AGREEMENT BUT ALL FAVOR THE RECURVATURE SCENARIO WITH GFDN TO THE
LEFT OF AND JGSM TO THE RIGHT OF THE ENVELOPE. THIS TRACK FORECAST
IS RIGHT ALONG BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN CONSENSUS...(more info)
>> MEARI, meaning: Reflection of sound or echo. Name contributed by: DPR Korea.
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
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RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART: 
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> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
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LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS MEARI (FALCON)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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