Friday, June 24, 2011

TS HAIMA [EGAY] - Update #024

 


for Thursday, 23 June 2011 [10:50 PM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday June 23 2011):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 2:00 AM) on TS HAIMA (EGAY). Please be reminded that updates on TS HAIMA will now be at 2PM, 8PM, and 8AM due to difficulty in releasing the advisories during the presence of two tropical cyclones.


HAIMA (EGAY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


TROPICAL STORM HAIMA [EGAY/06W/1104]

T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 024

8:00 PM PhT (12:00 GMT) Thu 23 June 2011
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #027/JMA RX Warning/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm HAIMA (EGAY) is about to move into the Gulf of Tonkin after making landfall over coastal areas of Western Guangdong...starts dissipating.

Residents and visitors along Hainan Island, Southern & Southwestern China should closely monitor the progress of HAIMA (EGAY).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 8:00 PM PhT Thu June 23 2011
Location of Center: 21.4º N Lat 110.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 55 km (30 nm) WNW of Zhanjiang, China
Distance 2: 150 km (80 nm) NNW of Haikou, Hainan
Distance 3: 440 km (237 nm) ENE of Hanoi, Vietnam
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 19 kph (10 kts)
Towards: Gulf of Tonkin
06-12hr Rainfall Accum (SW of center): 200 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 25-30 mm/hr (Mod)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 500 km (270 nm) / Average
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 8 ft (2.4 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8:00 PM HKT Thu June 23

FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 36 hours)*

HAIMA (EGAY) is expected to dissipate as it enters Northern Vietnam within the next 24-36 hours.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 65 km/hr (35 knots) with higher gusts. HAIMA (EGAY) is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale.

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

HAIMA's (EGAY) circulation has started to breakdown as it crosses SW China. Most of its intense raincloud convection remains to the south and southwest of the low-level circulation center (LLCC). Below are the summary of the depression's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

INNER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting Western Guangdong particularly Zhanjiang City & Gulf of Tonkin. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-95 kph) can be expected along these bands.
RAINBANDS - spreading and affecting rest of Guangdong Province, Hainan Island, & Northern Vietnam. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) can be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 200 mm (high) south and southwest from the center of HAIMA (EGAY). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy with widespread moderate to heavy on-&-off rains w/ squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 PM (12 GMT) THU 23 JUNE POSITION: 21.4N 110.0E.
*..(more)

>> HAIMA, meaning: A sea horseName contributed by: China.
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RECENT JTWC / WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART
:

 
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RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:


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RECENT MTSAT-2 "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE
:


> Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg 
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:  


> Image source:  Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
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LATEST 12-18 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP)
:  



> Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
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NOTE:
 
  * - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

   
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
   
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS HAIMA (EGAY)...go visit our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

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