for Monday, 20 June 2011 [7:28 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday June 20 2011):
Back to its 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on TD 06W (EGAY).
06W (EGAY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W [EGAY]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 013
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Mon 20 June 2011
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #013/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
06W (EGAY) is now over the Bashi Channel after quickly traversing the Balintang Channel...downgraded to a Tropical Depression. Enhanced SW Monsoon continues to bring occasional rains across Western Philippines.
Residents and visitors along Southeastern & Southern China should closely monitor the progress of 06W (EGAY).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Mon June 20 2011
Location of Center: 20.1º N Lat 120.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 115 km (62 nm) NW of Calayan Island
Distance 2: 130 km (70 nm) SW of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 3: 135 km (73 nm) WSW of Basco, Batanes
Distance 4: 210 km (112 nm) North of Laoag City
Distance 5: 210 km (112 nm) NNW of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 6: 295 km (160 nm) SSE of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 28 kph (15 kts)
Towards: Southern China
CPA [ETA] to Hong Kong: Wed Afternoon [12NN-1PM PhT]
06-12hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 75 mm (Med)
Rainrate (near center): 20-25 mm/hr (Mod)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TD
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 6:00 AM PhT Mon June 20
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* 06W's CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy with widespread moderate to heavy on-&-off rains w/ squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: SULU SEA, WESTERN LUZON incl. METRO MANILA, WESTERN VISAYAS, PALAWAN, CALAMIAN GROUP, MINDORO, MARINDUQUE, ROMBLON, & WESTERN BICOL. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow. Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs! PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
06W (EGAY) is expected to regain TS status later this afternoon or evening as the system enters the South China Sea w/ much favorable environment. This system shall be approaching the coast of Southern China by early Wednesday morning (June 22). 
THIS AFTERNOON (MON): Regains Tropical Storm (TS) status, enters the northern part of the South China Sea...about 250 km SSW of Kaoshiung City, Taiwan [2PM JUN 20: 20.6N 119.2E @ 65kph]. TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (TUE): Still over the South China Sea, maintains its strength...about 265 km SSE of Shantou City, China [2AM JUN 21: 21.1N 117.4E @ 65kph]. TOMORROW AFTERNOON (TUE): Approaching the coast of Southern China...about 215 km ESE of Hong Kong, China [2PM JUN 21: 21.5N 116.1E @ 65kph]. WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens into a Tropical Depression (TD) as it bears down the coast of Southern China...about 95 km ESE of Hong Kong, China [2AM JUN 22: 21.9N 115.0E @ 55kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 55 km/hr (30 knots) with higher gusts. 06W (EGAY) is a Tropical Depression (TD) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. HONG KONG AREA: About 7 km NE of Hong Kong [ETA: between 12:00-1:00 PM Wednesday, June 22]. THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Dissipated as an area of low pressure off Guangdong Province - just to the NW of Hong Kong [2AM JUNE 23: 23.2N 113.3E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
06W's (EGAY) circulation still sheared with the low-level circulation center (LLCC) not aligned with the rain-cloud convection. Below are the summary of the depression's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Bashi and Balintang Channels. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) can be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 06-12HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 50 mm (low to medium rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 75 mm (medium) near the center of 06W (EGAY). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Tropical Disturbance 99W (LPA/1007 MB) now moving between the islands of Palau & Yap...continues to slowly organize as it heads towards the Philippine Sea. Its possible center was located near lat 9.5N lon 135.2E...about 1065 km East of Surigao City, Northern Mindanao, PH...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph near the center...moving WNW slowly. The 24-Hr. Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential on this system is now @ 50% [Medium]. View the latest satellite flash loop on this disturbance.
PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals
In Effect: NORTHERN CAGAYAN, CALAYAN-BABUYAN-BATANES GROUP OF ISLANDS, APAYAO & ILOCOS NORTE.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudslides and landslides.
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) MON 20 JUNE POSITION: 19.7N 121.4E.
*TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 06W (SIX), LOCATED 430 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS DURING THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 191730Z PGTW SATELLITE
FIX AND A 191724Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT DVORAK T-NUMBER
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. TD 06W HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS IN RESPONSE TO PERSISTENT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
CONVERGENCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVEER, A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT
OF THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS OCCURRING AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH A
TRANSISTORY MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH, AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
REMAINS GOOD. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION
BEGINNING TO REDEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. WITH IMPROVING
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, TD 06W IS EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS
IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA UNDER THE CONTINUED STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER
TAU 36 IN RESPONSE TO INCREASINGLY RESTRICTED OUTFLOW ALOFT AND
LOWER ALONG-TRACK OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE AFTER MOVING INLAND AROUND TAU 72. THE CURRENT TRACK
FORECAST LIES WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, WITH NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE STEERING
PATTERN. FORECASTED INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN DECREASED BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS AND EXPECTATION OF LESS THAN OPTIMAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...(more)
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RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART:
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RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
**N/A**
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
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LATEST 06-12 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TD 06W (EGAY)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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