Friday, June 24, 2011

TS HAIMA [EGAY] - Update #025

 


for Friday, 24 June 2011 [9:50 AM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday June 23 2011):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 3:00 AM) on TS HAIMA (EGAY). Please be reminded that updates on TS HAIMA will now be at 3PM, 9PM, and 9AM due to difficulty in releasing the advisories during the presence of two tropical cyclones.


HAIMA (EGAY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


TROPICAL STORM HAIMA [EGAY/06W/1104]

T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 025

8:00 AM PhT (00:00 GMT) Fri 24 June 2011
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #030/JMA TC Warning/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm HAIMA (EGAY) has moved into the Gulf of Tonkin as it slightly regains strength...threatens Northern Vietnam.

Residents and visitors along Hainan Island & Northern Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of HAIMA (EGAY).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 8:00 AM PhT Fri June 24 2011
Location of Center: 20.8º N Lat 108.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 230 km (125 nm) East of Hanoi, Vietnam
Distance 2: 220 km (120 nm) NW of Danzhou, Hainan
Distance 3: 255 km (138 nm) WSW of Zhanjiang, China
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph (40 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
Present Movement: WSW @ 19 kph (10 kts)
Towards: Northern Vietnam
24hr Rainfall Accum (SW of center): 450 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 25-30 mm/hr (Mod)
Minimum Central Pressure: 990 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 425 km (230 nm) / Average
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 8 ft (2.4 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8:00 AM HKT Fri June 24

FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 36 hours)*

HAIMA (EGAY) is expected to dissipate as it enters Northern Vietnam within the next 12-24 hours.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 75 km/hr (40 knots) with higher gusts. HAIMA (EGAY) is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale.

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

HAIMA's (EGAY) circulation has become compact upon moving into the Gulf of Tonkin.. Most of its intense raincloud convection remains to the south and southwest of the low-level circulation center (LLCC). Below are the summary of the depression's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

INNER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting Coastal areas of Northern Vietnam & the Gulf of Tonkin. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-95 kph) can be expected along these bands.
RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting rest of Northern Vietnam & Hainan Island. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) can be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 150 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 450 mm (high) south and southwest from the center of HAIMA (EGAY). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy with widespread moderate to heavy on-&-off rains w/ squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: VIETNAM & NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 65 kph) will blow.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) FRI 24 JUNE POSITION: 21.4N 110.0E.
*TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 06W (HAIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM
EAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION REBUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) FOLLOWING ITS REEMERGENCE OVER
THE GULF OF TONKIN. A 231904Z 89GHZ AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS
TWO SEPERATE CONVECTIVE BANDS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
QUADRANTS CURVING IN TOWARD THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED AMSU PASS AS WELL AS A
PREVIOUS 231901Z AMSU-B IMAGE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN
AVERAGE OF DVORAK T-NUMBER INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD OF
1.5 AND 2.5, RESPECTIVELY. ADDITIONALLY, OBSERVATIONS IN THE AREA
SUPPORT A PRESSURE ANALYSIS OF 996MB, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
CURRENT WIND SPEED ANALYSIS. TD 06W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A NARROW LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, CARRYING
TD 06W INLAND BY TAU 24. MODEST INTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR AS GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER OFFSETS THE NEGATIVE
IMPACT OF MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR..
.(
more)

>> HAIMA, meaning: A sea horseName contributed by: China.
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RECENT JMA TRACKING CHART
:

 
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RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:


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RECENT MTSAT-2 "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE
:


> Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg 
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:  


> Image source:  Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
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LATEST 12-18 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP)
:  



> Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
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NOTE:
 
  * - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

   
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
   
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS HAIMA (EGAY)...go visit our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

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