for Friday, 17 June 2011 [5:45 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday June 17 2011):
Now issuing 3-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on the newly-formed TD 06W (EGAY) located off the Philippine Sea.
06W (EGAY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W [EGAY]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 003
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Fri 17 June 2011
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #003/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Depression 06W (EGAY) has accelerated WNW with no change in strength...moving closer to Northern Samar-Bicol Region Area. Its scattered rainbands continues to affect Bicol, Eastern and Central Visayas.
Residents and visitors along the Eastern Coast of Luzon & Visayas should closely monitor the progress of 06W (EGAY).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Fri June 17 2011
Location of Center: 11.7º N Lat 127.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 220 km (120 nm) East of Borongan City
Distance 2: 315 km (170 nm) ESE of Catarman, N.Samar
Distance 3: 400 km (215 nm) SE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 4: 430 km (232 nm) ESE of Legazpi City
Distance 5: 500 km (270 nm) SE of Metro Naga/CWC
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 26 kph (14 kts)
Towards: Extreme Northern Luzon
CPA [ETA] to Bicol: Sunday Morning [2AM-8AM PhT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 250 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TD
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 08 ft (2.4 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 6:00 PM PhT Fri June 17
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* 06W's CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs! PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph tonight & tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
06W (EGAY) is expected to slightly turn NW and intensify into a tropical storm within the next 48 hours, passing to the NE of Bicol Region by early Sunday morning, June 19.
TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (SAT): Intensified slightly while still over the Philippine Sea...about 360 km East of Catarman, Northern Samar, PH [2AM JUN 18: 12.3N 127.9E @ 55kph]. TOMORROW AFTERNOON (SAT): Turns slightly northwestward with no change in strength...about 290 km East of Virac, Catanduanes, PH [2PM JUN 18: 13.5N 126.9E @ 55kph]. SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Near Tropical Storm strength while passing well to the NE of Catanduanes Island...about 180 km ENE of Pandan, Catanduanes, PH [2AM JUN 19: 14.8N 125.7E @ 55kph]. SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Upgraded to a Tropical Storm (TS) while passing well to the East of Northern Aurora...about 270 km ENE of Casiguran, Aurora, PH [2PM JUN 19: 16.4N 124.6E @ 65kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 45 km/hr (25 knots) with higher gusts. SARIKA (DODONG) is a weak Tropical Depression (TD) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. CATANDUANES: about 185 km NE of Pandan or 235 km NE of Virac [ETA: between 2:00-4:00 AM Sunday, June 19]. MONDAY AFTERNOON: Maintaining its minimal TS strength as it passes near the NE Coast of Cagayan [2PM JUNE 20: 18.9N 122.7E @ 65kph]. TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies slightly after passing over the Batanes Group of Islands...approaching the Southern Coast of Taiwan [2PM JUNE 21: 21.3N 120.9E @ 75kph]. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens into a Tropical Depression (TD) while moving into Taiwan Strait [2PM JUNE 22: 23.5N 119.2E @ 55kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
06W's (EGAY) circulation remains weak and still consolidating as of this time...with most of its rain-cloud convection displaced West & NW of its low-level center. Below are the summary of the depression's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: DEVELOPING RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Bicol Region, Eastern & Central Visayas, and Northeastern Mindanao. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) can be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to medium rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 250 mm (high) near the center of 06W (EGAY). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals
Now In Effect: CATANDUANES, NORTHERN & EASTERN SAMAR.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudslides and landslides.
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) FRI 17 JUNE POSITION: 10.9N 128.7E.
*TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 06W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
CENTRAL CONVECTION SHEARED OFF TO THE WEST. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON A 170530Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SUPPORTED BY A
170551Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES THE SYSTEM TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) AXIS UNDER 20 KNOTS
OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TD 06W IS CURRENTLY STEERING ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING IN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND MOVE
INTO A REGION OF MORE FAVORABLE VWS AS IT GET CLOSER TO THE NER
AXIS. AFTER A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST OF CHINA
AFTER TAU 24, THE STR WILL BUILD TO THE WEST AND 06W WILL TRACK MORE
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. AS THE SYSTEM GAINS LATITUDE AND APPROACHES
THE STR AXIS NEAR TAU 48, OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE INTO THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND THE SYSTEM WILL REACH TROPICAL STORM
INTENSITY, PEAKING AT 40 KNOTS BY TAU 96 BEFORE BRUSHING THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF TAIWAN. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST FAVORS CONSENSUS UP TO TAU 48, AFTERWHICH
IT IS MORE TO THE RIGHT AND FASTER THAN CONSENSUS TO REFLECT A MORE
INSTENSE SYSTEM...(more)
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RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART:
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RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
**N/A**
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
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LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TD 06W (EGAY)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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