for Thursday, 09 June 2011 [9:10 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday June 09 2011):
Now initiating the 6-hrly web, twitter, SMS and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on TD 05W (DODONG).
05W (DODONG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W [DODONG]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 001
9:00 PM PhT (13:00 GMT) Thu 09 June 2011
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #002/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
The strong disturbance (LPA) off the coast of Zambales, has strengthened to Tropical Depression 05W (DODONG)...heading northwestward across the South China Sea, away from Western Luzon...however, its Eastern Rainbands continues to affect Western Luzon.
Residents and visitors along the coastal areas of NW Luzon, Southern & SE China should closely monitor the progress of 05W (DODONG).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy with possible occasional rains w/ squalls can be expected along the following affected areas: PALAWAN. Light to moderate SW to Westerly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
Time/Date: 9:00 PM PhT Thu June 09 2011
Location of Center: 15.7º N Lat 118.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 175 km (95 nm) WNW of Iba, Zambales
Distance 2: 205 km (110 nm) WSW of Dagupan City
Distance 3: 250 km (135 nm) WSW of Baguio City
Distance 4: 315 km (170 nm) NW of Metro Manila
Distance 5: 845 km (455 nm) SW of Hong Kong
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Present Movement: NW @ 15 kph (08 kts)
Towards: Southeastern China
12-18hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 130 mm (Med-High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TD
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 08 ft (2.4 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 9:00 PM JST Thu June 09
05W (DODONG) is expected to slowly intensify as it moves NW to NNW across the South China Sea, west of Luzon for the next 2 days. This system is forecast to make landfall along Southeastern China or off Eastern Guangdong on Saturday afternoon, June 11th.
TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (FRI): Maintains its NW track while it intensifies along the South China Sea...about 225 km West of San Fernando City, La Union [2AM JUN 10: 16.5N 118.2E @ 55kph]. TOMORROW AFTERNOON (FRI): Upgraded to Tropical Storm (TS) as it turns more NNW...about 340 km West of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte [2PM JUN 10: 18.1N 117.4E @ 65kph]. SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Still intensifying slightly as it approaches the coast of SE China...about 365 km South of Shantou City, China [2AM JUN 11: 20.1N 116.8E @ 75kph]. SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Shall be near the coast of SE China...prepares to make landfall ...about 120 km South of Shantou City, China [2PM JUN 11: 22.3N 116.7E @ 75kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 55 km/hr (30 knots) with higher gusts. 05W (DODONG) is a Tropical Depression (TD) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Dissipating overland or off Fujian Province, China [2PM JUN 12: 26.6N 117.7E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
05W's (DODONG) circulation continues to consolidate while over the South China Sea. Below are the summary of the typhoon's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: RAINBANDS - spreading across Western Luzon (Ilocos Provinces down to NCR & Mindoro). Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) can be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 12-18HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 40 mm (low to medium rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 130 mm (high) near the center of 05W (DODONG). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) 
In Effect: BATAAN, PAMPANGA, TARLAC, ZAMBALES, & PANGASINAN.
The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph tonight. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) THU 09 JUNE POSITION: 15.4N 119.2E.
*TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 05W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS CURVED CONVECTION INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 090136 TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING AROUND THE LLCC WITH LIMITED CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
THE NORTH IS BEGINNING TO FILL, HOWEVER, THE TROUGH CURRENTLY
APPEARS TO BE INHIBITING CONVECTION AND OUTFLOW ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS FAVORABLE. THE INITIAL
POSITION WAS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MSI AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM
THE TRMM IMAGE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED
ON PGTW AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. TD 05W IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID- LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN WILL BEGIN
TURNING MORE POLEWARD AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE STEERING
RIDGE. TD 05W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL
OVER CHINA AFTER TAU 48 AND DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS...(more)
>> SONGDA, meaning: A river in northwestern Viet Nam. Name contributed by:Viet Nam.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT JTWC / WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
**N/A**
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 12-18 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TD 05W (DODONG)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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