for Tuesday, 21 June 2011 [7:00 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday June 20 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on TD 06W (EGAY).
06W (EGAY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W [EGAY]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 016
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Tue 21 June 2011
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #015/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Depression 06W (EGAY) tracking WSW during the past 12 hours...shall make landfall over Western Guangdong by tomorrow afternoon.
Residents and visitors along Southern & Southwestern China should closely monitor the progress of 06W (EGAY).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Tue June 21 2011
Location of Center: 19.6º N Lat 116.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 395 km (213 nm) SE of Hong Kong
Distance 2: 425 km (230 nm) South of Shantou, China
Distance 3: 430 km (233 nm) WNW of Laoag City, PH
Distance 4: 440 km (238 nm) SE of Macau
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Present Movement: WSW @ 20 kph (11 kts)
Towards: Southern China
CPA [ETA] to Hong Kong: Wed Morning [9-11AM PhT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 75 mm (Med)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TD
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 AM PhT Tue June 21
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* 06W's CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)*
06W (EGAY) is expected to remain a depression throughout the 2-day forecast...will return to its usual WNW path. This system shall make landfall west of Hong Kong by late Wednesday afternoon or early evening (June 22). 
THIS AFTERNOON (TUE): Turns WNW across the northern portion of the South China Sea...about 280 km SE of Hong Kong, China [2PM JUN 21: 20.0N 115.5E @ 55kph]. TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (WED): Weakens slightly as it moves closer to the coast of Western Guangdong, China...about 180 km South of Hong Kong, China [2AM JUN 22: 20.6N 114.1E @ 45kph]. TOMORROW AFTERNOON (WED): Just along the coast of Western Guangdong...about 120 km SW of Macau, China [2PM JUN 22: 21.4N 112.8E @ 45kph]. THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Over SW China after making landfall along Western Guangdong...about 230 km West of Macau, China [2AM JUN 23: 22.0N 111.4E @ 35kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 55 km/hr (30 knots) with higher gusts. 06W (EGAY) is a Tropical Depression (TD) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. HONG KONG AREA: about 160 km SSW of Hong Kong [ETA: 9:00 AM to 11:00 AM Wednesday, June 22]. MACAU AREA: about 115 km SSW of Macau [ETA: 12:00 PM to 2:00 PM Wednesday, June 22].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy with widespread moderate to heavy on-&-off rains w/ squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN LUZON incl. METRO MANILA, CORREGIDOR & LUBANG ISLANDS, CALAMIAN GROUP, & MINDORO. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
06W's (EGAY) circulation still poorly organized due to unfavorable upper-level environment aloft. Below are the summary of the depression's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: RAINBANDS - over water (South China Sea). Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) can be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 50 mm (low to medium rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 75 mm (medium) near the center of 06W (EGAY). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) TUE 21 JUNE POSITION: 19.8N 116.9E.
*TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 06W, LOCATED 250 NM SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG,
HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS.
RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) IMAGERY SHOWS SMALL POCKETS OF CONVEC-
TION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ORBITING ABOUT A
LOOSELY DEFINED CENTER. ALSO EVIDENT IN IR IMAGERY IS GOOD OUTFLOW TO
THE SOUTHWEST, BUT VERY LITTLE OUTFLOW OR CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. A 201752Z AMSU PASS SHOWS VERY LITTLE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH MOST OF
THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENT INFLOW INTO
THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS JUST TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN A CONVERGENT REGION OF
WIND FLOW AND SUBJECT TO MODERATE AMOUNTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) (20KTS). THE CONVERGENT FLOW AND MODERATE VWS ARE CONTRIBUTING
TO THE LACK OF SUSTAINED CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ASIATIC
HIGH. THE ASIATIC HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE EAST OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AND 06W WILL THEN TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH AND MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN CHINA...(more)
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT JTWC / WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
**N/A**
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TD 06W (EGAY)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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