for Monday, 20 June 2011 [12:53 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday June 20 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on TD 06W (EGAY).
06W (EGAY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W [EGAY]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 014
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Mon 20 June 2011
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #014/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Depression 06W (EGAY) has left the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), as another potential Tropical Cyclone (LPA 99W) is expected to enter PAR today. Enhanced SW Monsoon continues to bring occasional rains across Western Philippines.
Residents and visitors along Southeastern & Southern China should closely monitor the progress of 06W (EGAY).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Mon June 20 2011
Location of Center: 20.6º N Lat 119.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 260 km (140 nm) SSW of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Distance 2: 290 km (157 nm) WSW of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 3: 300 km (162 nm) West of Basco, Batanes
Distance 4: 315 km (170 nm) NNW of Laoag City
Distance 5: 390 km (210 nm) SE of Shantou, China
Distance 6: 530 km (285 nm) ESE of Hong Kong
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 26 kph (14 kts)
Towards: Southern China
CPA [ETA] to Hong Kong: Wed Morning [8-10AM PhT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 75 mm (Med)
Rainrate (near center): 20-25 mm/hr (Mod)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TD
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
T2K Final TrackMap (for Public): 12:00 PM PhT Mon June 20
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* 06W's CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy with widespread moderate to heavy on-&-off rains w/ squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: SULU SEA, WESTERN LUZON incl. METRO MANILA, WESTERN VISAYAS, PALAWAN, CALAMIAN GROUP, MINDORO, MARINDUQUE, & ROMBLON. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow. Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs! PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
06W (EGAY) is expected to regain TS status later this afternoon or evening as the system moves across the South China Sea w/ much favorable environment. This system shall make landfall near Hong Kong on Wednesday morning (June 22). 
THIS EVENING (MON): Regains Tropical Storm (TS) status as it moves across the northern part of the South China Sea...about 325 km SSE of Shantou City, China [8PM JUN 20: 20.7N 117.9E @ 65kph]. TOMORROW MORNING (TUE): Still over the South China Sea, maintains its strength...about 270 km South of Shantou City, China [8AM JUN 21: 21.0N 116.5E @ 65kph]. TOMORROW EVENING (TUE): Approaching the coast of Guangdong Province...about 145 km ESE of Hong Kong, China [8PM JUN 21: 21.5N 115.4E @ 65kph]. WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens into a Tropical Depression (TD) as it makes landfall very near Hong Kong...about 20 km East of Hong Kong, China [8AM JUN 22: 22.2N 114.4E @ 55kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 55 km/hr (30 knots) with higher gusts. 06W (EGAY) is a Tropical Depression (TD) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. HONG KONG AREA: Over Hong Kong (Landfall) [ETA: 10:00 AM Wednesday, June 22]. THURSDAY MORNING: Dissipated as an area of low pressure off Guangdong Province - well to the NW of Hong Kong [8AM JUNE 23: 23.4N 112.7E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
06W's (EGAY) circulation still sheared with the low-level circulation center (LLCC) not aligned with the rain-cloud convection. Below are the summary of the depression's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: RAINBANDS - over water (South China Sea). Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) can be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 50 mm (low to medium rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 75 mm (medium) near the center of 06W (EGAY). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Tropical Disturbance 99W (LPA/1005 MB) now off the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), and may become a Tropical Cyclone within the next 06-24 hours. Its possible center was located near lat 10.5N lon 135.2E...about 1075 km ESE of Borongan City, Eastern Samar, PH...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 33-43 kph near the center...moving NW @ 28 kph towards Northern Luzon. The 24-Hr. Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential on this system is now @ 90% [High]. View the latest satellite flash loop on this disturbance.
PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals
In Effect: CALAYAN-BABUYAN-BATANES GROUP OF ISLANDS & ILOCOS NORTE.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudslides and landslides.
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) MON 20 JUNE POSITION: 20.3N 120.0E.
*TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 06W (SIX), LOCATED 330 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A
192332Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND A 192151Z SSMIS PASS. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK T-NUMBER
ESTIMATES OF 1.5 AND 2.0 FROM KNES AND PGTW, RESPECTIVELY.
PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS LEFT THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OF TD 06W PARTIALLY EXPOSED, WITH A SMALL
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO STEER ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...(more)
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RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART:
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RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
**N/A**
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
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LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TD 06W (EGAY)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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