for Saturday, 25 June 2011 [5:42 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday June 25 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on TS MEARI (FALCON).
MEARI (FALCON) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 115 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM MEARI [FALCON/07W/1105]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 018
5:00 PM PhT (09:00 GMT) Sat 25 June 2011
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #015/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm MEARI (FALCON) has weakened slightly due to its passage over cooler sea surface temperatures (East China Sea). It will pass just to the east of Shanghai tonight, bringing rains and gusty winds to the area. This storm continues to pull the Southwest Monsoon bringing rainy/windy conditions along Northern & Central Luzon including some portions of Metro Manila.
Residents and visitors along Eastern & Northern China and the Korean Peninsula should closely monitor the progress of MEARI (FALCON).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sat June 25 2011
Location of Center: 30.0º N Lat 123.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 210 km (112 nm) ENE of Ningbo, China
Distance 2: 255 km (138 nm) ESE of Shanghai, China
Distance 3: 475 km (255 nm) SW of Cheju Is.
Distance 4: 750 km (405 nm) SSE of Qingdao, China
Distance 5: 900 km (485 nm) SSW of Seoul, S.Korea
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 95 kph (50 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 120 kph (65 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 31 kph (17 kts)
Towards: Chinese-N.Korean Border
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 150 mm (Med)
Rainrate (near center): 25-30 mm/hr (Mod)
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 1,130 km (610 nm) / Very Large
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 22 ft (6.7 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 ft [0.0-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 PM PhT Sat June 25
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)*
MEARI (FALCON) is expected to continue moving northward across the East China Sea and into the Yellow Sea within the next 24 to 36 hours. It will continue to decay as it moves into the much cooler sea temperatures of the Yellow Sea tomorrow. Below are the summary of the 2-day forecast for MEARI (FALCON). 
TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (SUN): Continues losing strength as it moves across the East China Sea...about 260 km NE of Shanghai, China [2AM JUN 26: 32.6N 123.6E @ 85kph]. TOMORROW AFTERNOON (SUN): Now moving across the Yellow Sea as it maintain its weakening trend...about 290 km East of Qingdao, China [2PM JUN 26: 35.8N 123.5E @ 75kph]. MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Downgraded to a Tropical Depression (TD)...approaching the coast of the Chinese-North Korean Border...about 295 km NW of Seoul, South Korea [2AM JUN 27: 38.7N 123.9E @ 55kph]. MONDAY AFTERNOON: Dissipating over land - as it traverses the Chinese-North Korean Border...about 400 km NNW of Seoul, South Korea [2PM JUN 27: 41.1N 126.0E @ 45kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 95 km/hr (50 knots) with higher gusts. MEARI (FALCON) is a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Further weakening on this system is expected today. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 445 kilometers (240 nautical miles) from the center. MEARI is a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,130 kilometers (610 nautical miles) across.
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy with occasional to widespread moderate to heavy rains w/ squalls & thunderstorms will continue to prevail along the following affected areas: CENTRAL & NORTHERN LUZON incl. METRO MANILA. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 55 kph) will blow.
MEARI's (FALCON) very large circulation continues to dominate the East China Sea, Yellow Sea and the Northernmost Philippine Sea. Below are the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: INNER RAINBANDS (with a developing CDO) - spreading and affecting the Eastern Coast of China and the southern portion of the East China Sea. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) can be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading and affecting Eastern China incl. Shanghai, the Yaeyama-Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands, Taiwan, Western Coast of Japan, Yellow Sea incl. Cheju Island, & the Southern Coast of South Korea. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) can be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 150 mm (high) near the center of MEARI (FALCON). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) SAT 25 JUNE POSITION: 29.1N 123.7E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (MEARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF CHEJU-DO, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 17 KTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A
WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION, HOWEVER, A 250427Z AMSU-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS ALMOST A
DEGREE TO THE NORTH OF THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 55 KNOTS
FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE
SYSTEM LIES TO THE NORTHEAST OF A FILLING LOW AND TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST OF TWO RIDGE AXES. THE SYSTEM IS STEERING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. TS 07W (MEARI)
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER TAU
36, 07W WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND MAKE LANDFALL
NEAR THE CHINESE AND NORTH KOREAN BORDER AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 48.
INTENSITY WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH TAU 36 AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...(more info)
>> MEARI, meaning: Reflection of sound or echo. Name contributed by: DPR Korea.
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART: 
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
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LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS MEARI (FALCON)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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